June 10 Storm Chase (Travel Day)

6:45 PM Update: Well after 'wasting' some time in Yankton, SD; it has been determined that today just isn't going to happen due to abysmal moisture return. The day is now a positioning day for tomorrow's potential outbreak of severe weather across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. Now in-route to Sioux City, IA where we will spend the night relaxing and looking at tomorrows forecast. An update may come later tonight pertaining to the forecast for Wednesday, but today appears to be about 99.9% over.

2:00 PM Update: I've caught my ride with the other ISU team members, Brandon Engelson and Mark Ketcham, and have continued towards our meeting point of Yankton, SD. Currently heading through Sioux City, with less than an hour and a half before meeting up and arranging vehicles once again. Today's forecast is still questionable, as moisture return thus far seems to be struggling with only mid 50s for much of Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Another update likely once we meet up in Yankton (~4 PM)...

9:15 AM Update: Although the day doesn't look great for tornadoes, the chances of a nice isolated supercell capable of large hail and some gusty winds is fairly high. A warm front will become situated across portions of southern South Dakota, and southwestern Minnesota over the afternoon hours. This front combined with a weak wave in the flow will allow for thunderstorm development along and to the north, mainly over areas of South Dakota, but as far east as the southwestern quarter of Minnesota and northwest Iowa in the later evening or overnight hours. The current chase plan is a target of Yankton, SD by mid-afternoon, then to re-adjust there during the afternoon as we await initiation.

Current RUC forecast from 12z paints a nice picture for a storm along the boundary in southern South Dakota. But, the caveat to this model picture is that moisture return via its' forecast may be substantially high (>5 degrees). This would cause a dramatic decrease in overall instability over the area, and an overall weakening of otherwise great potential. At this point, it seems like the moisture return will be the limiting factor today. Nonetheless, thunderstorm initiation is expected late this afternoon, or evening in southern South Dakota. Based on current 12z data that is in thus far, I'm leaning towards a target of Winner, SD!