No Thunderstorms?!?

Last nights' threat for thunderstorms was minimized as despite cooling aloft, a strong cap continued to be in place. With the lack of strong lift, the thunderstorms in southern South Dakota during the early nighttime hours could not continue further eastward. Some scattered storms did develop, however, these were not severe or widespread in nature like previous forecasts indicated. The large MCS that was forecasted for areas of southwestern Minnesota and adjacent areas did form, but this tracked further north across portions of central Minnesota during the nighttime hours.

We'll continue the trend of warm and humid air, as temperatures ranged around 70 this morning across the state with some scattered fog due to the humid air. Expect the fog to burn on once the sun begins to heat us up, with highs today in the upper 80s throughout the state. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the southeast half of the state, a few of these storms may be severe capable of large hail and damaging winds in the northeast. Lows tonight in the upper 60s with a lingering storm or two in southeast Iowa.

Wednesday's highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s, lows overnight should range from the upper 60s to near 70 from northeast to southwest. Thunderstorms look to enter the forecast on Wednesday night again with the approach of a weak system. The best chances for any thunderstorms will be over the western third, with even better chances in the northwest portion of the state.

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Severe Weather: July 28

9:25 PM Update: Strong inhibition/capping is continuing ahead of the current activity in both North Dakota, and South Dakota. This is currently suppressing, and disorganizing the convection in southern South Dakota. Some cooling is taking place, that may allow the thunderstorms to continue to develop as they move eastward. Still expecting that the thunderstorms will continue into western Minnesota and western Iowa during the overnight hours. The severe weather threat with these thunderstorms is questionable, but still deserves to be watched as we continue through the overnight hours. The timetable for storms entering portions of northwest Iowa looks to be around midnight for extreme northwest Iowa.


9:20 AM Update: A continuing threat of severe weather is likely late this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours for a portion of the state. Current radar shows lingering thunderstorm activity in southern Iowa this morning, but with weakening trends given strengthening inhibition/capping. Other thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over central North Dakota, which continues to be severe warned for multiple cells. The progression of this MCS is expected to continue east/southeast, with the eventual growth of several individual cells or multicell clusters rather than the previous MCS condition that it was in. Some of this isolated development is already being noted on latest radar trends on the southern periphery of the cluster.

Ahead of this thunderstorm complex, and associated shortwave, clearing skies will allow a warm front to move northward throughout the day. Areas along and south of this warm front will see temperatures rising into the upper 80s and 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s. This will provide a large area of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa with extreme instability values throughout all levels. Despite this extreme instability, and overall strong lift, thunderstorms shouldn't develop until the later afternoon or evening hours due to strong capping. The most likely areas to be able to breach this strong cap will be along or just ahead of the current cluster and shortwave that is expected to move east/southeast throughout the day. This additional development is likely to occur across the eastern half of South Dakota, as well as southeastern North Dakota where the instability will be present to aid in rapid thunderstorm development. The storms may initially be supercellular in nature, capable of both very large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado given decent shear values and extreme instability.

As the thunderstorms continue into the evening and early overnight hours, expect the evolution into a strong MCS, possible derecho as the storms enter extreme eastern Dakotas, and western Minnesota/Iowa. The tornado threat should decrease, however, the threat for both large hail and damaging winds will continue. The potential for a strong damaging wind threat is there, thus the SPC has issued a moderate risk for portions of the eastern Dakotas, stretching into parts of southwestern Minnesota.

The threat for Iowa should mainly be confined to portions of western Iowa in the early overnight hours. The potential for damaging winds, very large hail, and a potential for a tornado or two is being slated for mainly the northwest quarter of the state. Expect thunderstorm to continue throughout the nighttime hours, affecting a large portion of the state with the potential for mainly large hail and damaging winds. The threat may be enhanced dependent upon the MCS evolution and if the potential derecho does indeed take form. Later updates may alter forecasts slightly to increase the severe weather threat.

Otherwise, enjoy the hot and humid day throughout a majority of the state with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. Clear skies for a majority of the afternoon will make conditions feel like the 100s in some areas though.

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Severe Weather: July 27

Recap: A round of storms made their way through portions of central and southern Iowa yesterday afternoon/evening. Storms developed during the early afternoon hours in response to an old MCS entering portions of northwest Iowa. As this continued, additional development occurred as this lingering MCS pushed a stationary boundary, and outflow further to the south. The intense storms began roughly around the Pocahontas to Fort Dodge areas where they continued to expand and strengthen as they headed towards the Des Moines area. As the storms entered Boone/Story counties a tornado warning was issued for the storm, as well as significant damaging winds. The storms continued to expand throughout the afternoon and evening hours as they entered southern Iowa, creating a large span of damaging winds and large hail reports over the state. Overall, a total of 5 tornado reports were received yesterday in Polk county (near Elkhart and Ankeny), Jasper county (near Valeria and Newton), and lastly in Monroe county (near Lovilia). Large hail was also a threat, the largest size in Iowa being baseballs on a few occasions, other areas with storms in northern Missouri reached up to 5 inches in diameter! Damaging straight line winds were also definitely present and the most widespread, typically 50-70 mph winds were common. However, a few measured gusts over 80 mph were also received yesterday with the storms.

A large collection of pictures, radar, etc. can be found on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.


2:15 PM Update: The previously severe warned storm has since continued eastward and congealed into more of a linear line of storms. This line has entered, and now passed through, portion of Cerro Gordo and Franklin counties in Iowa where it became severe warned for the potential for winds greater than 60 mph. The line of storms is continuing to move east around 35 mph. Both Floyd, and northern Butler counties are now under a severe thunderstorm warning for winds greater than 60 mph and some small hail.


12:40 PM Update: The NWS has issued a statement indicating that the public reported pea sized hail with the storm as it moved through northwest Palo Alto county. This is likely going to be the largest hail size seen with this storm in its' current state, as it does appear to be weakening as it continues eastward.


12:25 PM Update: A broken line of thunderstorms moved into the state late this morning, affecting mainly extreme northwestern Iowa. This line strengthened as it entered areas that held some instability in place with broken clouds earlier in the morning. It has since passed through areas of Dickinson and Clay counties before becoming severe warned as it entered Palo Alto county. This warning continues for northern Palo Alto county until 1 PM, the storm continues to stretch from the east of Wallingford, IA south/southwestward to the west of Ruthven, IA. The main area that may be impacted by some small, and potentially severe hail, is located to the southwest of Graettinger, IA. This storm is moving to the east/southeast at approximately 35 mph and will continue to move through Palo Alto county for the next half hour.

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Ahh... Summer

Spent the first half of the week traveling from California into Las Vegas, NV; and then was in Vegas through Wednesday morning. Had a flight back into the plains of Iowa early Wednesday morning, and then drove back home during the afternoon hours. Finally back home and was able to see some of the wind damage that occurred on Monday morning across central Iowa. I will add on pictures from the last few days of Vacation, mainly Vegas pictures, later on this weekend. Started up another job today, working in the corn fields for Monsanto out of Spencer, IA. Also have two photography jobs that need to be done this weekend, so that will keep me quite busy for the next few days.

As for the weather in Iowa, it seems like you were stuck in a warm, humid, and stormy pattern for the week I was away. That has continued into today, and will likely stick around for a little while longer. Today's highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s depending on where you are with the breaks in the clouds. Some thunderstorms will be possible overnight across the state, lows should range from the mid 60s to near 70 from northeast to southwest. Lingering thunderstorms are possible across a majority of the state on Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The thunderstorm chances should be minimal on Friday night, however, still there. Lows should range in the 60s throughout the state. The weekend looks nice, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 on Saturday; lower to mid 80s on Sunday. Lows should range in the 60s throughout the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday night and Sunday, and especially over the southern two-thirds of the state. These continued chances of precipitation have prompted several flash flood or flood watches, as well as some warnings, over the southern portions of Iowa. Expect the saturated and some flooding to continue through the weekend.

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Vacation (Days 3 & 4)

The vacation continues, with a visit to a few more places on Friday morning in Sedona, AZ. Grabbed a few more panoramic images that can be stitched together later... We then continued south into the 'hot' portion of Arizona, Phoenix, spending the rest of the afternoon in a pool in Scottsdale. Went to the Arizona Diamondbacks and LA Dodgers on Friday night, a great 11 inning game which saw the Dodgers coming out on top. Was also treated to some nice fireworks after the game, which was viewable from a portion of the upper deck at Chase Field. (Images below)





Saturday (Day 4) was spent traveling from Phoenix, AZ to Anaheim, CA. Arrived there and went to see the Pacific Ocean at Huntington Beach, where the water was very chilly. Only spent a few minutes grabbing some pictures there and wading in the water. California really didn't seem like that great of a place to me, the weather was cool which wasn't too bad, but the overall conditions there including the terrible smog that ruins all sorts of scenery were definitely not something that I could spend time looking at.

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Vacation (Day 2)

Left Flagstaff, AZ in the morning en route to the Grand Canyon, drove through a large portion of the National Forest that is located throughout northern Arizona. A lot of scenic views, so plenty of pictures yesterday... A view from the Grand Canyon:



After the visit to the Grand Canyon we headed south to view areas of the Oak Creek Valley and Sedona, AZ. Found ourselves a nice view of Oak Creek off of the highway to take some pictures, etc. Nice spring fed creek that was clear as can be! Explored the town of Sedona and its' views last evening and this morning... A lot of panoramic pictures that will have to be stitched together once I get back home. A last couple pictures of the creek that we found, and just one of the many great red sandstone formations that make up Sedona and its' views.

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Hello from Arizona!

Left for vacation yesterday morning, driving from northwest Iowa to Des Moines, IA Airport. From there, flew into Las Vegas, NV during the afternoon and picked up the rental car to make the way into Arizona. Went over the Hoover Dam, and then drove through Arizona to arrive at our nighttime destination of Flagstaff, AZ.

A visit to the Grand Canyon today, and then dropping south to view Sedona, AZ and all of its' natural features. Throwing on a few images of yesterdays' visit below...

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Severe Weather: July 17

Just a quick update on the severe weather threat for Iowa, although I'm in Arizona (see post above). A line of thunderstorms capable of some damaging winds and large hail is making its' way into the state as we speak. A severe thunderstorm warnings has been issued for portions of Lyon and Osceola counties...

Once this round of severe thunderstorms is over this morning, another round is possible this afternoon that will bring with it the threat of large hail and damaging winds once again. Keep an eye out as thunderstorms are possible through much of the northern half of the state. No further updates are likely today...

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More Lightning!

I made myself get up this morning so I would have time to edit at least a portion of the photos from last night. I have a dozen of the 'best' images from last night online in my gallery pages for you to enjoy now. There are nearly 50 images that at least have some sort of lightning strike in them, but quite a few are of nearly the same type of strike so I kept it down on the repeats. Two of the best ones are shown below, otherwise enjoy all of them in the July 15 Lightning Gallery.

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Lightning!!

I finally managed to do it! A storm at night, that was actually isolated cells instead of a huge line, that put off a decent lightning show. I was out taking photos from around 11:20 PM until 12:45 AM, managed nearly 120 images over that time with at least half of them with some type of strikes. Getting ready for vacation, and editing the 90 pictures from tonight's Estherville-Lincoln-Central vs Storm Lake baseball game.

I did put one image online as sort of a teaser to what some of the images may hold. This image is completely unedited, it was converted to jpeg and then resized for website upload. The image is one of many that contains the storm, its' lightning, and the clear sky and its' stars above. Hope you enjoy the teaser image, and I'll be sure to update the blog when I do get all of the images edited and online (may be awhile!).

Check out the next posting to see some of the photos!

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