Severe Plains

New Blog... Update Links!

2010-06-29T20:58:00.001-05:00

http://www.severeplains.com/blog

Once again, I am no longer updating this blog as I have a new hosted blog that I am updating. Please update your links to the following page:

http://www.severeplains.com/blog

May 20 Western Missouri Tornadoes

2010-05-21T04:22:00.000-05:00

A recap of the Tornadoes that occurred on May 20 in Western Missouri has been posted on the new Severe Plains Blog:

http://severeplains.com/blog/?p=900

May 20 Severe Weather?

2010-05-20T08:24:00.001-05:00

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A day of light to moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms during the evening hours last night left areas of Kansas City with another 0.75-1.25" of rain on the already wet ground. Additional rainfall today will not be as widespread or as significant, thus expect the flooding threat to diminish over the local Kansas City area. Other areas of Missouri will see a flooding threat continue through the day as heavier rains with embedded thunderstorms continue, and another round of general moderate rainfall occurs over eastern portions of the state overnight tonight.

Main concern for this update is the potential of some severe weather this afternoon and evening over parts of extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper level low currently centered over central Kansas will slowly progress eastward in conjunction with the surface low currently along the KS/OK border. Cold air aloft will allow for at least some destabilization of the lower levels given at least some sunshine this afternoon over these areas. If some clearing can occur, expect at least 500 J/kg of instability with upwards of 1000 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE being possible. At least marginally severe hail should be realized if sufficient instability values can be reached over parts of western Missouri. If low level instability can be realized with surface heating this afternoon, fairly substantial turning in the lower portions of the hodographs may allow for the risk of tornadoes just ahead of the surface low pressure system where winds will be southeasterly. At this time there is undoubtedly some concerns with the setup, but the main concern will be whether or not some clearing will occur to allow the destabilization needed.

This will be a fairly narrow corridor for severe weather this afternoon where enough destabilization can occur and the low level wind fields are supportive. Latest SPC outlooks have this area defined fairly well at the moment.

An update tomorrow may reflect on any severe weather that occurs today and otherwise look at the upcoming pattern of very warm and humid weather!

Severe Weather Continues...

2010-05-11T21:12:00.000-05:00

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Severe weather across the Plains states continues today and is expected to continue tomorrow as well. Yesterday's event were well documented and have been all over nearly every national news station and even local news stations last night and today. Tornadoes threatening two well populated areas, Wichita and Oklahoma City, and unfortunately impacting one (Oklahoma City) causing 5 deaths and numerous other injuries. Tornadoes continued across other parts of southern Kansas and throughout Oklahoma, even as far south of the Red River Valley. I'm not going to spend too much time to rehash all of these details as I'm sure everyone has read all about them by now...

Today's storm threat was fairly condition despite having great instability and shear present, due to the strong elevated mixed layer that capped all attempts at convection until ~8PM. Since then we have a few thunderstorms along the warm front in Illinois and into eastern Missouri, as well as a severe/tornadic thunderstorm in northwest Oklahoma. Additional storms should continue to fire and the current areas of thunderstorms expand through the evening and early overnight as a strong low level jet creates good lift across the frontal boundary. For this reason the SPC has issued a new tornado watch that covers areas of Oklahoma and Kansas, with additional watches (likely severe) being needed later tonight. The main threat with storms beyond the 10pm time-frame will be large hail given the steep lapse rates and good elevated instability. These storms will likely move out of Kansas during just before sunrise, and exiting western Missouri by mid-morning. This will likely set the stage for another severe weather event across portions of Kansas and Missouri as well as some adjacent areas (to a lesser extent).

By late afternoon tomorrow a warm front should be situated from near the KS/MO border across northern Missouri and through central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Dew point values in the mid to upper 60s can be expected to the south of this boundary and to the southeast of a cold front that should be positioned from Manhattan, KS southwest through Enid, OK and into north-central Texas. Surface profiles suggest widespread 2000+ J/kg of surface based instability with areas of 3000 J/kg likely occurring in areas where moisture can pool along/near boundaries. A fairly stout elevated mixed layer should keep any initiation at bay until late afternoon and evening hours with northern Missouri likely seeing convection before areas of eastern Kansas due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft. Bulk shear values of 45-65 kts will easily support supercells capable of very large hail throughout the warm sector. Southerly winds at the surface through much of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will likely limit tornado potential somewhat through those areas, although isolated tornadoes will likely not be ruled out. A higher likelihood of tornadic supercells will exist in areas where surface winds can back (become southeast), likely east of a developing low near the KS/MO/NE intersections. Stronger low level turning of the hodographs will exist here and likely promote a higher risk of tornadoes over northern Missouri and perhaps into northeast Kansas as well. Convection will likely continue to expand into the early overnight hours, into perhaps line segments as the low level jet increases the forward motion and provides more unidirectional shear. This will provide more of a focus for large hail and perhaps damaging winds into the overnight hours for parts of eastern Kansas and areas of northern/central Missouri. Another concern with convection tomorrow evening/overnight will be the potential for flooding given some likelihood for the training of these thunderstorms along/just ahead of the cold front and near the frontal intersection for parts of Kansas and Missouri.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to be possible through the end of the week. However, nothing prominently severe looks to occur at this time...

May 11 Severe Weather Potential

2010-05-10T00:22:00.001-05:00

Wasn't able to get an organized post together for the severe weather threat upcoming on Monday. Needless to say given the hype from all of the news sources and meteorological sources is that this could be a fairly significant event. The potential does exist for strong and long-lived tornadoes, perhaps from the late afternoon through the evening and continuing into the early overnight hours before storms congeal into more of a linear mode. In addition to the tornado threat, expect very large hail and damaging winds (especially overnight).

There will be plenty of chasers, spotters, research groups, media and locals out trying to chase these storms that will likely be carrying a forward speed of 35-45 mph. This will make it an interesting challenge for everyone to stay safe out there, and hopefully everyone does!

I work the evening shift tomorrow and will likely be there late as storms roll into the Kansas City area between 9pm-12am. I will not likely update the blog until after the event has passed...

April 6 Chase

2010-05-06T17:47:00.002-05:00

Currently out chasing in eastern Kansas... View the Live website page for current video and GPS tracking!

http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

April 29 Chse Recap

2010-05-03T09:12:00.002-05:00

Took a trip back home for the weekend, thus the late response to recap last Thursday's storm chase which yielded two tornadoes that have both been confirmed by the NWS offices. A complete recap will be posted later today, with images likely being available sometime later...

For more information regarding updates while on the chase last Thursday, please visit the new blog site for Severe Plains:

http://www.severeplains.com/blog

Head to New Blog For Updates!!

2010-04-29T08:00:00.001-05:00

A Reminder:

Please head to the new blog site for the latest updates while chasing!

Severe Plains Blog

http://www.severeplains.com/blog

April 29, 2010 Chase Forecast

2010-04-28T21:58:00.001-05:00

Chase #1 of 2010!

Time of Departure: ~12:30PM
Initial Target: Herington, KS

Discussion: Initial low pressure system over Nebraska will swiftly progress northeast into northern Minnesota by late evening. A trailing cold front will surge east/southeast over MN/IA/NE and into northern Kansas during the evening, intersecting with a dryline positioned over central Kansas/Oklahoma. Largely linear forcing expected along the cold front in the Northern Plains preludes any significant tornado risk despite very strong shear values given the howling winds throughout all levels. Thunderstorms should initiate along this cold front during the evening hours, likely unzipping the front the entire way from southern Minnesota into southern Nebraska and along the Kansas/Nebraska border. As this occurs a secondary low is forecast to form in central Kansas, enforcing the dryline and providing a source for some localized backing of the winds. As this occurs it would appear likely that convective initiation should ensue given enhanced convergence. Bulk shear values are undoubtedly sufficient for supercells during the evening with an increase in shear likely with the low level jet increasing and proving south-southeast winds at the surface during the early overnight. Moisture is a concern given only mid to upper 40s exist widely in the area of interest, however continued strong southerly flow should provide ~60 surface dew points by 00z tomorrow. Widespread 1000-1500 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE should exist, however fairly substantial capping inversion should limit any development without the aid of at least moderate surface convergence. Given surface temperatures of mid 80s and dew points ~60, high LCL values are also of concern for tornado potential. Nonetheless, the risk is there for at least a storm or two to develop along the dryline or for the cold front to initialize a storm near the intersection of the two boundaries.

It is for this purpose that the initial target be just south of the expected cold front and dryline intersection, being close enough for a tail-end charlie situation along the front or close enough to close quickly on any development to the south along the dryline. Will update by early afternoon with additional thoughts after viewing the 00z runs tonight and the 12z runs tomorrow morning; along with a look at the current conditions as a fellow co-worker and I depart.

April 29 Severe Weather Forecast #1

2010-04-27T21:59:00.000-05:00

A nice and cool day today with temperatures only into the low to mid 60s over the region. A few showers were able to develop thanks to the abundant sunshine and cool temperatures aloft, however nothing widespread or too significant. We'll see the winds turn to the south during the overnight tonight, beginning to bring back the warm and moist air that was shunted southeast with the cold front this past weekend. This will set the stage for a severe weather event Thursday evening and overnight as a large trough moves eastward onto the Plains.

Details are still sketchy despite being only 2 1/2 days out, with the GFS still playing catch-up with the NAM and especially the ECMWF/GEM models. Strong southerly flow at the surface and above the surface should yield sufficient moisture return with ~60 surface dew points to the Central Plains by Thursday evening. This southerly flow will continue into the evening hours, and combined with strong flow in the mid-levels from the west-southwest will yield strong shear values over the area of interest. The combination of instability and shear does yield 0-3km EHI values of 3-4 which given a surface based storm would likely be more than sufficient for rotation in the lowest portions of the storm. Other parameters to note would be mixed layer CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, deep layer (0-6km) shear of 45-55 knots with a vector more normal than not to the boundary over south-central Kansas and Oklahoma. Such strong wind fields throughout all of the levels will end up giving fairly quick storm motions of 30-40 mph to the northeast, which would be favorable for any storms moving off of the dryline and into an even higher dew point environment.

All of the above parameters would be more than sufficient for strong rotating supercells likely capable of tornadoes given the strong deep layer and storm-relative shear. However, there are definitely some negatives at this point with the setup on Thursday. Moisture return will be sufficient for thunderstorms, however given surface temperatures of 80+ degrees F will give way to ~20 degree F dew point depressions and LCL heights of 1500 meters or higher. This decreases the tornado potential initially, but with storm modification of the surrounding environment could definitely still yield tornadoes. A pronounced warm nose in the lower levels will also give way to some substantial inhibition for surface based parcels to initially develop. There are of course many other details which will hopefully become better defined by tomorrow night, but for now it does appear that the positives outweigh the negatives on this setup for severe weather.

An additional update is likely by tomorrow night, with the final details regarding my chasing opportunities with this setup. A quick glance beyond Thursday doesn't give much model consensus, but it would appear that a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms would appear likely.

A Few Nice Days Ahead

2010-04-26T22:38:00.000-05:00

A few showers remained in the area today with the upper level low still hanging around over Iowa. These showers pivoted around the low this evening and will continue to do so overnight, giving areas a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain in the heavier bands. A nice scene this evening in Kansas City with the showers moving through as the sun was lowering, created both some high contrast dark clouds and a nice sunset scene (including a brief rainbow). We'll dry out tomorrow and continue to remain dry with warming temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.

The next chance for rain and severe weather for that matter will come on Thursday for the Central Plains. A deepening trough in the west will eject several waves of energy for late this week and through the weekend. Model forecasts have been very inconsistent in what the system will do in regards to a cold front Thursday night. This will have dramatic affects on both precipitation and especially severe weather chances for Friday and the weekend. A quick look at the potential on Thursday shows a great chance of thunderstorms given the strength of the forcing along the cold front that will likely be sweeping southeast across the Plains. A lot of questions still need to be answered regarding the specifics, but it would appear likely that at least a strong line of thunderstorms would sweep over parts of the Northern and Central Plains Thursday evening and overnight. Additional details regarding the severe weather potential on Thursday and the remainder of the week will be addressed in later updates. Finally have a few days off with what looks to be an active pattern, so may finally get a chase day in as well!

Severe Weather Potential - April 23

2010-04-23T08:39:00.000-05:00

Another day with potentially significant severe weather across both the Central Plains and into the Gulf Coast. Yesterday was quite impressive, with multiple cyclic tornadic storms over eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and several tornadic storms in the Texas Panhandle. Another severe weather setup is available today with a surface low located along the western Kansas/Nebraska borders, a warm front extends eastward across southern Nebraska and into southeast Iowa; and a dryline ahead of the cold front should be positioned over far eastern Kansas by this evening. The dryline should extend well south into the Arklatex region, providing a trigger for development from southern Nebraska to as far as northeast Texas. There is very good agreement that thunderstorms initiating in the Arklatex region will move eastward off of the boundary, but continue to pose a significant threat of severe weather given parcel profiles and strong shear present throughout the overnight. However, in the interest of forecasting sake I am focusing on the northern potential given its' likelihood to affect the Kansas City Metro this evening.

Morning convection is currently on its' way out of eastern Kansas, with cloud cover extending back further west to encompass much of eastern Kansas. This should clear out over the next few hours, allowing for sufficient destabilization ahead of the dryline and south of the warm front. This should yield 2000-2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE, and mixed-layer CAPE nearing 2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear values of 40-50 kts with a vector out of the west-southwest should allow for fairly discrete storm development along the dryline in extreme southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. As these storms move off of the dryline they will continue to encounter a favorable air mass and likely even better low level shear given stronger backing of the winds. A mid-level jet (500 hPa) will enter the area during the evening hours, likely increasing the deep layer sheer values and providing support for additional storm development. Storm motion given the storm relative wind fields should be to the northeast at 20-35 mph, with any right-movement yielding motions of east-northeast around 25 mph. Storms will likely have enough directional shear to rotate, yielding sufficient tornado potential to mention tornadoes possible with any supercells that do develop in this area. In addition to the tornado potential, ample instability will be available for large hail growth.

Storm initiation should occur by 00z (7pm) in eastern Kansas along or just ahead of the dryline, with storms continuing well into the overnight as they move northeast. Based upon current forecasts, thunderstorms should enter the Kansas City metro ~10pm and exit by 2am. Severe weather is likely with any thunderstorm this evening and into the early overnight. I work the evening shift at work, thus will not be chasing or be able to provide updates. `

Severe Weather Threat: April 22

2010-04-22T09:36:00.002-05:00

Another day of severe weather potential across the Plains, with the threat now including portions of the Central Plains (southern Kansas). A warm front currently located just north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border will continue to progress slowly northward today, leading to widespread showers/thunderstorms north of the boundary and clearing skies and destabilization south of the boundary. By this evening the warm front should be located along a line extending from the southwest corner of Nebraska to ~Emporia, KS. Areas just along and south of this boundary will have the potential for severe weather this evening into the early overnight. At this point the best severe weather threat will be along the dryline in western portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will have better instability to go along with better convergence along the dryline boundary. Nonetheless, areas of southern Kansas, especially southwest Kansas, will have the potential for severe weather including large hail, isolated tornadoes, and a few damaging wind gusts. As mentioned, areas further west towards the dryline will see the higher risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat, general showers/thunderstorms north of this boundary should persist through much of the day. These showers/thunderstorms are currently entering the Kansas City Metro and should continue well into the afternoon as the front only slowly progresses them northward. No severe weather threat is expected north of the boundary due to lack of instability.

An additional update is likely tonight to discuss any ongoing severe weather, and tomorrow threat for severe weather which will shift north and east and include the Kansas City Metro! Friday's severe weather threat will include the risks of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes...

First of Many Chances...

2010-04-20T22:09:00.003-05:00

Scattered showers and even a thunderstorms every once in a while have continued over parts of Central Nebraska through much of the day in response to a shortwave that is slowly progressing southeast. These showers should continue to move southeast through the overnight, reaching the Kansas and Missouri borders during the early morning hours. Fairly dry conditions in the lower levels along with an increasingly unfavorable conditions for the shortwave should limit the potential for any widespread rain across much of Kansas/Missouri. However, recent models trends have stuck to a more localized area of 'energy' which may lead to an area of showers that could persist through much of the day tomorrow as it progresses across parts of Missouri. Even with this scenario, do not expect any significant rainfall and the day certainly does not look like a wash-out.

That wave is the first of many that will likely move through the Central Plains for this week, with an impressive trough and numerous shortwaves yielding plenty of rainfall and severe weather potential for Thursday through Saturday. Latest model trends continue to push back the timing of the event, leading to a more southerly positioning of the warm front and a more westerly positioning of the dryline. While this isn't that unexpected it was kind of a surprise as to the magnitude of the 'jump' south and west in a run-to-run basis.

Thursday in my mind continues to be the more favorable for photogenic tornadoes in my opinion. Surface based instability should be nearing 2000 J/kg over extreme southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas; 75/60 surface parcels should yield low LCL's and sufficient moisture given higher elevations; and a favorable location along a jet maxima should yield sufficient upper level support. All of the aforementioned in conjunction with largely southeast flow at the surface should allow for supercells with 15-25kt storm motion capable of producing tornadoes.

Friday still holds the potential for tornadic supercells, and more than likely the more widespread severe weather event given a more pronounced warm front and dryline. Bulk shear values are more sufficient on Friday throughout the warm sector, however with slightly more unidirectional flow. Nonetheless, expect widespread severe weather along the dryline from central Kansas into north-central Texas with the potential for additional thunderstorms along the warm front given strong surface convergence.

More details regarding both Thursday and Friday, along with some potential on Saturday will be discussed in later updates...

A Week of Potential...

2010-04-19T22:23:00.002-05:00

A fairly cool and calm weekend under northwest flow aloft, with highs in the 60s and overnight lows into the lower 40s. This 'chilly' weather is coming to an end already with a return of southerly winds at the surface by tomorrow. Temperatures rose into the upper 60s and a few 70s across much of the area today, with a few 50s still prevalent over the High Plains regions where down-slope hasn't aided their warm-up yet. A few small impulses of energy under northwest flow will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Central Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday. And beyond that we'll turn the attention to our next big trough that will come onto the Plains Thursday/Friday and likely become a vertically stacked low by the weekend. This trough and associated thermodynamic features will likely create the potential for a significant severe weather event, perhaps one of the first more prolific tornado producing events of the year.

Have to take at least a quick look at the northwest flow event for Tuesday into Wednesday as that will at least bring the chance of rain. A decent shortwave impulse currently along the Montana/Wyoming border will continue southeast, likely located in southern Nebraska by Tuesday afternoon. This should be enough to create the potential for showers and thunderstorms over south-central Nebraska into north-central Kansas by Tuesday evening. There is at least some elevated instability present, and while not likely being enough for anything severe it will at least bring in the chance of rumbles. Another location of interest will fall along the High Plains where at least modest moisture of upper 40s to near 50 surface dew points combined with ~70 degree temperatures should yield 500-1000 J/kg of surface based instability. This in conjunction with sufficient shear values and lifted indicies, and little inhibition, should warrant the potential for at least strong thunderstorms along western Kansas and the Kansas/Colorado borders tomorrow late afternoon and evening. While these thunderstorms may fade after dark, the low level jet should continue to support more organized showers/thunderstorms over central Kansas, and given upper level support at least showers over eastern Kansas as well. A few lingering showers can be expected Wednesday morning along the Kansas/Missouri borders, otherwise a dry day for the Plains on Wednesday.

This dry day on Wednesday with southerly flow will continue the moisture return to the Plains, aiding in the potential for at least a High Plains thunderstorm event on Thursday. A potent trough will be nearing the four-corners region by Thursday evening, promoting height falls across the High Plains and likely at least the initialization of a surface low along the Lee of the Rockies. Potential exists for both a dryline and warm front becoming pronounced by Thursday evening, promoting convective development along the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma and further north into southwest Kansas and adjacent areas of Colorado. Sufficient shear should be in place given southeast flow at the surface and increasing 500hPa flow from the southwest. At least elevated supercells would appear likely, with any surface based convection definitely yielding severe potential...

Friday is shaping up to be the day of interest as the trough ejects onto the Plains, centered along the eastern Colorado border. A surface low somewhere near/along the Kansas/Nebraska border should also set the stage for both a warm front and dryline intersection. A pronounced dryline should surge eastward during the day Friday, making it well into central Kansas/Oklahoma. Strong moisture return both at the surface and aloft, at least according to models, should yield surface-based instability of at least 1500 J/kg. While shear is expected to be strong given fairly significant wind speeds in both the mid and lower levels, there is some concern based on recent model runs of too much uni-directional flow leading to fast storm motions and the potential for broken lines of convection. Nonetheless, the potential for severe weather is definitely there and likely warrant at least a higher-end slight risk by the SPC. A lot of details will need to be worked out, such as the arrival of a shortwave disturbance and any morning convection and cloud cover. These such details will be discussed later as the event nears and the short-term models can have their opinions voiced on the matter.

Onto the weekend, it would appear that our vertically stacked low pressure system will meander across the Central Plains on both Saturday and Sunday. Given the cold air aloft, thunderstorms do appear possible on Saturday for areas of Kansas/Missouri and perhaps areas just north. Sunday appears to be a day of cloud cover and showers at this moment, which doesn't bode well for my Royals/Twins baseball game that I plan to attend. I'll continue to watch and hope for the push of the low to the east for Sunday and next week. Well into the future, expect the low to move out early next week and lead to at least some short-term ridging of the Plains, promoting a return of warm and moist air. Our next round of thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather will come with the next trough, currently slated by the GFS and ECMWF to come in for the first few days of May.

More details regarding any thunderstorms tomorrow evening will be posted tomorrow along with another look at the potential for the late week severe weather episode.

Rain & Return of Seasonable Weather

2010-04-16T22:28:00.000-05:00

A cold front has pushed through a majority of the Central Plains over the past 24 hours, leaving us with more of a normal air mass for early April. Rainfall during the overnight was fairly heavy across parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, but decreased dramatically as it entered the Kansas City Metro. The 24-hour precipitation totals show this quite well:

St. Joseph - 0.59"
Kansas City Intl - 0.36"
Johnson Co. Exec - 0.06"
Olathe Airport - 0.04"
Lee's Summitt - 0.03"

We've cleared the skies out this evening, and with light northerly winds across the area will likely see some very crisp overnight lows tonight and for the next few nights as a high pressure system settles over the region. High temperatures over the weekend will be more typical for this time of the year, in the mid 60s for the Kansas City Metro. Into next week expect to see the high temperatures slowly moderate into the lower 70s, and lows should increase with the slow but sure increase in moisture and the exit of the high pressure center.

The next storm system for the Central Plains will likely come late next week as a cutoff low pressure system is forecast to finally push onto the Plains. There will likely be a limited severe weather threat as the system makes its' way across the Plains states given its' dynamic qualities. However, moisture return is a large question at this point and thus the quality of thermodynamics that this system has to work with will likely be its' limiting factor. Nonetheless it's the next thing in sight and will be watched as it comes onshore early next week and stalls along the West Coast.

Enjoy the sunny and more seasonable weekend!

A Round of Rain...

2010-04-14T09:03:00.000-05:00

Several days of warm and sunny weather has most people spoiled into thinking summer is almost here already! But, don't think winter has gone too far as there is plenty of winter weather still ongoing in some areas of the Rockies, including Montana and Wyoming where up to a foot of snow was falling yesterday on the backside of a strong dynamic upper level system that was also responsible for strong and even severe thunderstorms in the western Dakotas, western Nebraska and along the Colorado/Kansas border. This upper level system was also the culprit to some severe thunderstorms on Monday across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The upper level low will be pushed eastward over the next couple of days, allowing a cold front to push southward through the Plains states on Thursday and Friday. With the meager moisture in place and the lack of dynamics aloft, any thunderstorms along the cold front should be general thunderstorms with perhaps a few marginal severe hail reports.

Today's showers and thunderstorm chances along the front extend from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa, Nebraska and into western Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms will move into southern Wisconsin and continue through Iowa/Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday as the cold front beings its' push south. Finally we'll see the showers and thunderstorms make their way into the Midwest and areas of Missouri through the day on Friday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along western Oklahoma and Texas both today and tomorrow as a weak dryline will continue to focus for some additional development. Some cooler continental air will follow the front, with high temperatures being knocked back down into the 60s here in Kansas City and more seasonable temperatures for most of the Plains.

For the long range we'll see a brief ridge build into the central US, that will continue into early next week. Long range models have made a fairly drastic change in the past few runs compared to what was earlier depicted as a fairly quiet weather pattern now indicates that a strong storm system may move through the Plains states for mid-to-late week next week. While this system may have the strong dynamics, there will likely be a question of how much moisture is in place even by then thanks to the ridge that will also affect the Gulf and its' attempt to return moisture to the Plains. Of course this potential system is quite a ways out and there won't be much more thoughts on this until it nears a bit closer.

Warming Weekend...

2010-04-09T21:43:00.000-05:00

Temperatures today got a few degrees above forecast thanks to absolutely clear skies and a bit more mixing than expected. Similar trends should continue through the weekend and into much of early next week with highs ranging in the mid to upper 70s for the Kansas City area. A weak front will stall along the KS/NE and MO/IA borders on Saturday night, and continue to hold for Sunday afternoon. This front may provide some precipitation for portions of the Plains on Sunday as it stalls out. Steady southerly flow will allow for enough lift to provide some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon over northern parts of Kansas/Missouri and perhaps adjacent areas of Nebraska and Iowa. Given marginal dew points and sufficient heating there will be instability present, and enough shear to likely warrant at least the mention of strong thunderstorms. I will be watching the potential on Sunday for parts of Kansas, given enough shear we could see a decent thunderstorm or two, especially after sunset. This could provide a chance for some lightning photography if it is close enough and the storm motion isn't too fast, current forecast of east motion at 25 mph would be sufficient.

Besides these small chances of showers/thunderstorms during the evening/overnight on Sunday the weekend and early next week should be very nice. Even with some clouds in the sky the temperatures will still rise into the 70s! Wind speeds shouldn't be too gusty during the afternoon, leaving us with a very nice day to spend outside... I may post a quick update on the chance of thunderstorms over the weekend, otherwise enjoy the sun!

Severe Weather Recap - April 4-6

2010-04-07T22:09:00.000-05:00

The large trough and associated low pressure system and other surface features that had been in the eyes of chasers for nearly a week before even coming onshore has come and gone over the Plains. This past Sunday (April 4) through Tuesday (April 6) all had the potential to be some of the best days of chasing thus far for 2010. Now I realize given the way the early season (January-March) have turned out this isn't saying a whole lot, but comparatively many chasers were quite excited about the prospects. There were obviously some concerns with the setups on each day, as it is often hard to find a day that doesn't have some sort of concern. The lack of upper level support for Sunday and Monday were hard to miss, and with such a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) this allowed for a pretty good lack of significant storms until during/after sunset. The upper level support did arrive for Tuesday, but winds became largely unidirectional for most areas with only a narrow axis of good directional shear along the warm front in Iowa. The moisture concern which was largely discussed didn't show itself at the surface, but given the impressive EML that was in place the moisture just wasn't deep enough in my opinion. I could go on with a few more concerns and of course mention the positives that were in place for the events, but we'll continue on into what actually occurred each day.

In the end I can somewhat luckily say that I had to work throughout all three potential chase days, thus was not active in chasing any of the storms. I think it is fairly safe to say though that if I wasn't working that I would have likely favored going chasing for at least 1 or 2 of the days.

Sunday will actually be credited with the only tornado reports on the Plains, although not yet confirmed to my knowledge by the Kansas City or St. Louis NWS offices. (Note: There was a tornado report on Monday 4/5 in western Illinois) These tornado reports came from a rather impressive supercell that began its' life ~40 miles northeast of Kansas City and continued into western Illinois during the early overnight hours. A total of 4 tornado reports came from this storm as it passed through Howard, Randolph & Audrain counties between 7pm and 8:15pm. This storm also produced some of the largest hail reports (2.5" in diameter) and damaging winds. The storm was fairly photogenic, although any tornadoes were likely hidden within shrouds of rain. The worst part of this storm was likely its' speed (45 mph) and location within the hilly/winding roads of central Missouri. There were additional storms across parts of northern Oklahoma that came after dark and produced some large hail and damaging winds, but nothing of tornadic nature and largely photogenic.

Monday and another day featuring a warm front draped along the Iowa/Missouri borders and then a dryline play in Kansas/Oklahoma. No tornado reports and no significant severe weather to speak of out of the entire day/night with a majority of storms occurring across southern/central Iowa and only producing 1.0-1.75" diameter hail and some wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This will largely go down as a bust for most people as the only storms were well out of any target area by chasers.

Tuesday was turning out to be the day, with upper level support finally arriving and significant surface moisture still in place the hopes were high for most people. The SPC had targeted the warm front with a 10% tornado risk and kept the conditional hope of 5% tornado risk for the remainder of the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma. Storms did initiate along the dryline/pre-frontal trough and the warm front in Iowa; however once again there were no tornadoes to speak of. Several tornado warnings were issued in Iowa, with there being some impressive damage that has been surveyed to be damaging straight-line winds of 95-105 mph! Other reports of damaging winds and large hail occurred across eastern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma, although storm motions of 45 mph were a disadvantage along with largely linear storm mode with embedded supercells over Kansas. The storms over Oklahoma came after dark once again given the strong inhibition (EML) that continued to be in place. Although not a lot of reports from chasers have came in regarding the storms on Tuesday, I think it'll be hard to get any highly photogenic storms out of what occurred.

With what is likely one of the worst starts in regards to tornadoes in several years, the largely linear and high precipitation storms thus far haven't produced anything amazing to my knowledge. The Kansas City metro has been off to a pretty good start in regards to just severe/strong thunderstorms with several days of morning and afternoon convection with some marginal hail and strong winds. Even today we managed to pull off a severe thunderstorm and 1.75" hail in Platte County with little instability and a surface observation of 58/44. Can't say I'm dissapointed in hearing the thunder multiple times thus far, and I'll look forward to warmer temperatures and an eventual return to slower moving and more discrete storms later in the Spring!

Now all eyes can turn to the next trough to enter the Plains, which should come sometime early next week! In the meantime, we'll focus on sunny skies and warming temperatures for Kansas City.

Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 6

2010-04-06T09:21:00.000-05:00

A low pressure system is currently located over southeast Nebraska, and will slowly move into southern Iowa and eventually into northern Illinois during the overnight hours. A warm front is positioned to the east of the low, draped across southern Iowa, northern Illinois and further to the east. A cold front/dryline is to the south of the low, currently across eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma and into north-central Texas. These frontal boundaries will be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening given sufficient lifting and support from an upper level wave that should cross the Central Plains this afternoon. Additional storms in the warm sector or away from the front are not expected due to the substantial mixed layer that should provided sufficient capping. Given dew points into the upper 50s and lower 60s throughout the warm sector, with clearing skies allowing for moderate to strong destabilization along the fronts. Deep layer shear is more than sufficient for supercells during initial development, however with time a largely unidirectional wind field will eventually support more of a linear storm mode.

Thunderstorm development should occur this afternoon both along the warm front in Iowa, and along the cold front in northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas. Storms should continue to develop further south during the late afternoon and evening in eastern Kansas and into portions of Oklahoma along the dryline. With initial surface based development, isolated nature of storms should support very large hail and perhaps a tornado. The best tornado threat would appear to be along any portion of the warm front that can back winds to the southeast, otherwise given largely south/southwesterly flow at the surface the tornado threat should be minimal along the cold front. As we progress into the evening, clusters or broken lines of thunderstorms are expected with more of a threat of large hail and perhaps gusty winds. As we enter the overnight hours the instability should begin to wane, and given substantial capping otherwise it would appear more likely for storms to also wane after Midnight with a limited risk of any severe weather.

Kansas City should expect thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon, with a risk of some large hail with any strong/severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should exit with the passing of the cold front later this evening...

Severe Weather Update - April 4

2010-04-05T20:27:00.002-05:00

Just a brief update tonight on the severe weather threat for the remainder of the overnight. If you were unaware thus far, the threat in the Central Plains was limited by sufficient capping due to an elevated mixed layer and by the lack of upper level forcing to aid in storm development. As we neared sunset the combination of boundary layer decoupling and an increase in the low level jet likely contributed to thunderstorm development in extreme northeast Kansas. These thunderstorms have continued to develop spread both east/west along the warm/stationary front. These thunderstorms will likely continue and expand in coverage during the early overnight hours with the main severe weather threat being large hail. If a storm within the next hour or two can become surface based then a tornado threat would be enhanced (thus the basis on the tornado watch issuance), but the likelihood of this seems rather low. Storms will expand northeast as both the front and associated low pressure system slide northeast as well, with a continued threat for large hail and perhaps a few wind gusts across mainly southern Iowa and extreme northern Missouri, entering into areas of Illinois early tomorrow morning.

Additional development may be possible along the dryline as the low level jet increases even more during the early overnight. An attendant severe hail threat would include an elevated supercell in central Kansas/Oklahoma.

The next update will come with a look at the potential for severe weather on Tuesday for areas of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and other areas of the Plains.

Severe Weather - Apr. 5

2010-04-05T08:43:00.000-05:00

A recap of any severe weather will likely be posted once this system has exited the Plains entirely, as a round of severe/tornadic thunderstorms occurred yesterday afternoon/evening and additional rounds of thunderstorms are occurring this morning with more expected this afternoon.

Currently, elevated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail have been ongoing across parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, especially near the Kansas City Metro area. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for portions of the states through Noon today. These storms are being fed by a strong southerly low level jet that continues to push moisture northward and will begin to push a warm front to the north today, likely situating near the Iowa/Missouri border this afternoon. In addition to the warm front, a dryline will be situated across central Kanas southward into Oklahoma which may be another focus for thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm development along both frontal boundaries is somewhat in question due to a substantial capping inversion and elevated mixed-layer that will overspread the Plains states.

Despite this, thunderstorm development should occur along the warm front this evening (7-9pm). Given moderate instability and sufficient deep layer shear, supercells will be likely capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms should move along the warm front, continuing to be capable of all modes of severe weather through the evening and into the early overnight. Additional storms will continue along the warm front into Illinois and other portions of the Midwest during the overnight hours continuing the severe weather threat of mainly damaging winds and large hail, although a tornado or two is still likely with any storms that continue along the warm front.

Development along the dryline across central Kansas into Oklahoma is very conditional given the substantial elevated mixed-layer and associated temperature inversion in the lower levels. Strong instability should be present along/just ahead of the dryline this afternoon, however without continued convergence along the boundary there may not be sufficient lift for development of thunderstorms. If an area of enhanced convergence can occur along the dryline and thunderstorm development can occur, there is no doubt that supercell(s) would be likely. Once again all modes of severe weather will be likely with strong deep layer shear resulting in the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Essentially a conditional, but very volatile severe weather setup today across parts of central Kansas, extreme southeast Nebraska, extreme southern Iowa and extreme northern Missouri. The potential is there for a very strong supercell capable of significant hail, winds, and tornadoes. I'm sure there will be plenty of storm chasers out to keep track of the situation live. I once again am working the evening shift, thus will not be chasing this event (I keep telling myself it is only early April, plenty more opportunities).

Severe Weather - Apr. 4

2010-04-04T08:13:00.000-05:00

A true convergence of air masses will lead to severe weather potential stretching from extreme eastern Kansas to the northeast across northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and Illinois. A cold front will slowly drift southeastward during the day today, at the same time a strong southerly flow will continue the return of warm air and moisture to the Central Plains. By late this afternoon or early this evening a good bulk of warm air and moisture will begin to bisect the cold front, aiding in destabilization and convergence along the front. A meager shortwave is shown in model forecasts, and should give at least a glancing blow to aid in storm initiation this evening, especially along the northeastward extent of the front in northeast Missouri and adjacent areas of IA/IL. Further southwest, instability should be higher due to slightly higher moisture return by this evening, with SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and MUCAPE values even higher (~2000 J/kg). This may be enough when combined with the convergence along the front to initiate storms this evening which may be surface based for a short time as well. If surface based storms can develop, they will be able to take advantage of some low level shear which will aid in the organization of supercells. This may open up a small window of opportunity for a tornadic storm or two, however those risks at the moment seem quite low. More likely scenario will be for elevated storms to develop along the front this evening over northern Missouri as the low level jet provides additional lift and support to parcels ~1km above the surface. Elevated supercells are possible across northern Missouri, with the potential for large hail and a few damaging wind gusts. Individual storms will move east/northeast oriented with the cold front, thus the potential will also be there for training storms capable of some localized flooding concerns. The cold front will drift slowly southward overnight continuing the risk of thunderstorms into central Missouri and adjacent areas, before lifting back to the north Monday morning.

As I've mentioned before I work throughout the weekend and into next week, thus no chasing is planned. For a local chase today I would suggest a target in northern Missouri, perhaps along a Macon to Moberly line dependent on where the front is when initiation occurs. A brief update may be posted around Noon, otherwise any additional updates will be later tonight.

Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 4/5/6

2010-04-03T08:15:00.000-05:00

The first post in regards to severe weather potential for Sunday through Tuesday next week will encompass the entire event, subsequent posts will likely be broken into daily forecasts. Unfortunately this will be another virtual chase target event as later today I begin my 7 day stretch of work.

April 4 - Nonetheless another severe weather setup will take place as a trough enters the Plains states aiding in additional return moisture and co-located warm front moving northward. This warm front will likely be positioned across parts of central/northern Kansas and into northern Missouri by tomorrow evening. General upward trajectories of parcels would be sufficient for thunderstorm development, however increasing heights associated with the strengthening trough to the west will likely inhibit storm development during the afternoon hours. An increase in low level flow associated with the nocturnal low level jet will likely provide additional lift and be enough to develop elevated thunderstorms during the early overnight Sunday. These thunderstorms will likely become widespread over northern Missouri during the overnight and move northeastward with time. Although the severe weather threat would appear low due to the elevated nature of convection, marginally severe hail and damaging winds may be a threat into the morning hours on Monday across parts of northern Missouri and perhaps adjacent areas of Iowa and Illinois.

April 5 - Ongoing morning convection over parts of eastern Missouri/Iowa and into Illinois will exit eastward, with a quickly recovering warm sector pushing the warm front further to the north. Exact positioning of the warm front will be dependent upon any mesoscale cold pools and cloud cover, but a general positioning expected along northern Kansas/southern Nebraska and into southern Iowa by the late afternoon hours Monday. Large scale trough will make progress onto the High Plains, with associated low pressure system developing over western Kansas/Nebraska. A dryline will develop in association with the strengthening surface low, yielding largely southeast surface flow along the warm front and triple point areas. This in conjunction with largely veering winds with height and an increase in speed should yield impressive hodographs throughout the warm sector. Add sufficient daytime heating and moisture return with dew points of 60+, instability values should be moderate to strong leading to an impressive severe weather setup. While limited inhibition is expected to the east along the warm front in parts of eastern Iowa/Missouri, sufficient capping should ensure over Nebraska/Kansas allowing for strong destabilization. Thus expect rapid development of thunderstorms during the evening hours both along the warm front and perhaps along the dryline, being isolated in nature will likely allow the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Additional updates in regards to positioning of surface features will be likely, but an initial virtual target is expected along Highway 36 between Smith Center and Marysville in extreme northern Kansas.

April 6 - Large scale trough will continue its' movement across the Plains, with surface low pressure system moving across Iowa during the day Tuesday. Associated warm front will likely have ongoing thunderstorms and see continuing development along the front throughout much of the day. Cold front should sweep across eastern Nebraska/Kansas and into Iowa/Missouri during the early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front in the afternoon with limited inhibition. Largely linear forcing will be in place with the cold front, thus expect line segments and/or broken line of thunderstorms to develop over mainly portions of Iowa/Missouri in the afternoon. At this time it would appear that any severe weather threat would be limited to damaging winds and/or marginally severe hail associated with any convective line that does develop over parts of southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

April 2 Severe Weather

2010-04-02T15:41:00.001-05:00

Just a quick post about the impressive line of thunderstorms that evolved through the overnight last night arriving in the Kansas City metro this morning. As it was approaching the metro the storms organized into several line segments capable of producing damaging winds, and it did so throughout the Kansas City Metro and off to the northeast into south-central Iowa even. Reports from the metro areas indicated widespread swaths of 60-70 mph winds with a few areas likely seeing close to 80 mph gusts given the damage. Tree damage and damage to power poles were the main reports, other loose objects such as trampolines were also seen thrown into trees. At least five tractor trailers were tipped over due to these heavy winds, and just north of the Metro on I-29 saw significant roof damage to a storage barn. Additional details on the damage may be posted if any NWS office releases any special news statement. To view each of the storm reports received in associated with this cold front from the overnight and into early this afternoon please see the link below:

Map of Storm Reports from 12AM - 2PM on April 2, 2010

Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 1/2

2010-04-01T09:26:00.000-05:00

Just a quick update for the potential of severe weather both today and tomorrow for the Plains states. Today's threat is quite marginal given a stout temperature inversion in the lower levels ~800hPa, but given moderate surface based instability and marginal shear values any storms that could develop would likely be isolated and severe in nature. The initiation for any thunderstorms will come along a dryline situated from extreme south-central Nebraska through central Kansas/Oklahoma and into Texas. This dryline intersects a cold front in south-central Nebraska and will also be retreating to the west by this evening. Marginal convergence along the dryline may initiate storms just above the temperature inversion, likely after sunset this evening. Although there is a small chance of surface based convection developing, mainly where instability is greater and convective temperatures can be met across south-central Kansas and central Oklahoma. Main threats with thunderstorms this evening/overnight would be large hail and gusty winds, on the small chance that a surface based thunderstorm can occur there would be an isolated tornado threat given moderate low level shear.

Tomorrows potential will be much greater for convection and the potential for severe thunderstorms given the decrease in low-level temperatures which will rid any inversions. A strong trough entering the Plains will lead to significant height falls and with both a cold front and dryline to aid in initiation. Widespread precipitation is expected from the Northern Plains along the cold front, and further south into areas of Kansas/Missouri during the afternoon hours. Other convection may linger during the morning hours even further south, but should be displaced from the dryline/cold front and allow for some heating to occur during the afternoon. Any heating that can occur during the afternoon will lead to increase probabilities of severe weather along the frontal boundaries with the best threat of redevelopment and severe weather coming along the dryline in eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. These areas will have marginal shear, but given moderate instability will likely allow any thunderstorms to be severe in nature, with the threats of large hail and damaging winds, along with a tornado or two given strong vorticity (and stretching of the rotating column). The potential for a few storms capable of damaging winds and large hail will extend northward into parts of eastern Kansas as well, but is highly dependent upon the amount of instability that can be managed with any clearing. I may not have an additional update tonight/tomorrow, thus the inclusion of both days in this post. Chasing prospects do not warrant any chase given marginal parameters and distance for a good chase target.

Warm Temperatures... Thunderstorms by Friday!

2010-03-30T21:51:00.003-05:00

There has been much discussion in the chase community about the upcoming trough and its' associated features and its' severe weather potential. This discussion has been ongoing since the trough was a gleam in the GFS way back at 300+ hours. This would appear to be the first trough in perhaps many that is signaling the idea of switching out of winter and into a spring pattern. This pattern change is welcomed in such a year that thus far has been terribly slow in severe weather per SPC yearly climatology. Many questions remain about this first trough and still being 3.5 days as of this mornings (12z) model run this isn't necessarily unusual. I do hope that by tomorrow evening the models were at least begin to agree upon the more synoptic features of the event. Many questions have been brought forth regarding this Friday and while a few of them will likely not be answered until the morning of, we can at least speculate to what the results will be given certain conditions.

Moisture was an initial concern, and while the moisture is not expected to be significant there would still appear to be sufficient surface and mixed-layer moisture available for severe weather given the strong dynamics. Wind shear was a concern and still is a large concern given model forecasts of south-southwest winds from 850hPa through 500hPa. Latest trends have at least backed surface winds to a southeast direction during the afternoon Friday, which is dramatically helping the 0-1km shear values. However, given the highly uniform wind speeds without some additional turning in the 850-700hPa layer the surface winds may not be much of a factor. Instability has become somewhat of an issue given such dynamic cooling takes place ahead of the trough that there will not be a sufficient cap to allow for clear skies into the afternoon. A resulting precipitation/cloud shield in conjunction with warm temperatures ~800hPa would appear to be limiting the overall instability. This last detail is a question that may not be answered until the morning of, given the highly questionable model forecast cloud cover and precipitation. Nonetheless with all of the questions abound it would still appear that a severe weather event may likely unfold across the Southern Plains and perhaps even parts of the Central Plains. There is no doubt that with such a slow season ongoing and the location of the setup that many chasers will be out regardless.

In the meantime it is time to enjoy some very warm weather! High temperatures today ranged from the lower 70s along the Mississippi to the mid 80s along the western High Plains. Warm air and moisture will continue to stream northward as south winds continue to be sustained 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. Expect temperatures tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today, and Thursday's high once again be well above normal for most areas.

Additional updates will be likely tomorrow and through the remainder of the week in regards to the upcoming potential for severe weather.

Warming Quickly!! Late-Week Potential...

2010-03-29T00:07:00.000-05:00

As we enter the work week we can look forward to seeing bright sunny skies and knowing that temperatures will be above to well above average for this last week of March and beginning of April. A weak upper level ridge will be placed over the Plains states for much of the week, leading to clear skies and fairly strong southerly winds. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from east to west over the Central Plains tomorrow with a steady increase expected through Wednesday. Tuesday's highs will range from the mid 60s to ~80 from east to west, and even a few more degrees warmer on Wednesday (from 70 to mid 80s). Highs on Thursday will likely be fairly close to those on Wednesday, but our upper level ridge will no longer be centered across the Plains. We'll be in the process of ushering in a fairly robust trough and potentially closed upper level low onto the Plains on Thursday.

This will be the main focus of the rest of the updates this week, as the potent trough given the right set of features may be one of the first widespread severe weather events of the year. Currently the mid-range models are having problems deciding what to do with the trough late this week, differing as to either keeping it as a progressive wave across the Plains or to bring it into Texas as a cut-off low. Additional updates this week will keep track as to the latest model trends with this system and a quick review of the warm temperatures outside.

Severe Weather Threat - Mar. 27

2010-03-27T09:16:00.000-05:00

An upper level low will become closed for a short period of time today, and in conjunction with a surface low will create the potential for thunderstorms and a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening over the Central Plains. The area of interest for severe weather will be over extreme southeast Kansas, extreme southern Missouri, extreme eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Surface moisture will be meager over the area of interest, with dew points only reaching near 50F by this evening. However, the low level temperature profile will be sufficient given the cooling mid-levels associated with the closed upper low. This will result in low level instability sufficient for numerous thunderstorms across the area, with a low level wind field especially favorable for low level wind shear. The best mid-level and upper-level wind shear will be offset from this best low-level wind shear, thus limiting the overall tornado potential. However, there will be enough to uphold a marginal tornado threat across mainly extreme southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds will of course also be a threat with any strong/severe thunderstorms that occur this afternoon as well...

The threat is marginal enough and in an unfavorable chase terrain to not warrant a chase day for me. There will be several chasers out taking the chance however, and will likely have their live video available on ChaserTV this afternoon/evening. For the Kansas City area, expect showers/thunderstorms to continue off/on through much of the afternoon, becoming widespread by evening. The severe weather threat is very low, but thunderstorms are expected.

Beyond this storm system we can look forward to one of the first good upper level ridges across the Plains for much of the week ahead. This will bring temperatures warming dramatically to the highest we've seen yet this year, likely into the 70s and 80s across the Central Plains. This will hopefully increase the moisture content across the Plains as well, setting us up for the potential for one of the first significant severe weather events of the year... More details on the warming weather and the round of severe weather that may be in the forecast tomorrow!

A Rainy Period...

2010-03-23T22:45:00.000-05:00

Another storm system is impacting the Rockies already this evening, likely to bring snowfall amounts greater than a foot in many areas along the foothills in Colorado. A low pressure system will also be created that will quickly move out onto the Plains states and establish itself by tomorrow morning. A stationary front will be draped from southwest Oklahoma to the northeast across Oklahoma, Kansas and into northern Missouri by tomorrow morning. We'll see widespread rain showers by tomorrow morning over central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with these areas being just north of the stationary boundary. As the low pressure system continues slowly eastward and the upper level low dig onto the Plains this stationary boundary will slide to the south. Leaving much of Kansas, northern Missouri, southern Iowa and parts of southeast Nebraska in a favorable location for widespread rain showers through the day on Wednesday. This feature will slide eastward during the overnight hours, with additional rain showers and thunderstorms occurring over parts of Oklahoma and Texas. These thunderstorms will work northeast along with the surface low pressure system, making their way into southern Missouri for Wednesday night. Despite the strengthening system at all levels, the storm system will be picked up by an upper level jet streak which will thankfully move this system out of the Plains by Thursday night. Although much of Missouri and adjacent areas will be left under frequent showers and cloud cover through Thursday, the Plains will be dry by dawn on Friday.

We won't have too long to dry out though, as the next storm system will make its' way off of the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday. This will travel across the Plains over the weekend, and unfortunately with some northern stream energy to work with it will likely feature a decent cold front that will sweep across the area. This will likely lead to a couple of days of below average temperatures, which really is nothing new for the way this year has gone. Luckily the upper level ridge looks to build quickly which will allow the temperatures to rise quickly back to normal and potentially above normal levels for much of next week.

So to recap, two low pressure systems coming off of the Rockies look to affect the Plains states. The first of which for Wednesday and Thursday will bring steady rains and isolated thunderstorms. Perhaps some severe weather with a marginal setup over parts of Texas and Oklahoma. We'll take a day to dry off on Friday before the next system brings more steady rain, becoming a cold rain late, for the weekend. Despite a day or two of chilly temperatures, we'll be quick to warm back up come next week...

March 20 Winter Storm Video

2010-03-21T21:37:00.001-05:00

I finished a quick edit of my video I captured yesterday both in the early morning and during the late morning/early afternoon hours around the Kansas City area. You can find it available on YouTube and YouTube HD at the following url: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUtv6DlGJns

Or it is embedded below for you view here:

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Recap

2010-03-21T19:45:00.001-05:00

A long duration and dynamic winter storm struck portions of the Central and Southern Plains this past weekend, bringing with it nearly a foot of snow for parts of Kansas and Missouri. While snowfall did fall at a moderate to heavy intensity at times, the main culprit for the significant snowfall amounts was the long duration of the snowfall. To think, the ground was so warm from the previous two days of sunny and 60s that there was a portion of the snow that melted instead of accumulating. The first round of snow came with post-frontal precipitation across parts of Iowa, Nebraska and then into Kansas and Missouri during Friday evening and early overnight. As the early nighttime hours progressed, the first band of snow was enhanced by the developing upper level low to the south across Oklahoma/Texas resulting in increased coverage and intensities across Kansas and Missouri. There were even reports of thundersnow with lightning strikes across parts of northeast Kansas around the Midnight time frame.

A short break in the snow for Kansas City came during the morning hours on Saturday, as the post-frontal precipitation had moved into central Missouri. The low pressure system both in the lower and mid levels quickly deepened during the day, causing a large swath of deformation snow to occur over parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This snowfall came down long and steady and caused a majority of the accumulations over the Southern Plains and for areas south of I70 in Kansas and Missouri. A very tight temperature gradient still existed across central/western Missouri which during the day on Saturday which kept the precipitation as rain over many areas including Springfield, Jefferson City, and especially St. Louis (which never saw any snow). As the sun set on Saturday evening, a battle between the air masses resumed in which a cooling air mass due to the setting sun was being warmed by the strong southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system. This did allow some areas to see quick accumulations of snowfall, such as Springfield as the air mass cooled quick enough just before the warm air arrived. Reports were also received of both sleet and ice accumulations where the air mass wasn't quite cold enough for snow at the lower levels.

For a full look at your local area's snowfall amounts as well as a write up from a few of the NWS offices please select one of the links below. Additional links may be added as they become available.

Kansas City NWS - Snowfall Maps & Recap
Wichita NWS - Snowfall Map
Springfield NWS - Snowfall Map

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #8

2010-03-20T13:23:00.000-05:00

Moderate snow ongoing over the Kansas City metro with strong north-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with some higher gusts as well. This snow should continue for the next few hours before tapering to light snow for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Areas just southeast of the metro areas may continue to see moderate snow through the evening hours...

I've made it back home and am already watching basketball and preparing some dinner. Pretty fun morning heading out and checking out some of the rural areas, watching the snow fall and the traffic come by. The highlight of the live stream may have actually been the large group of deer that showed up across a field that I had parked by! Hopefully you caught that...

Going to relax and watch some basketball. Next post will likely be the recap of the event sometime tomorrow unless something new develops this afternoon.

Live Winter Storm Video Continues

2010-03-20T12:08:00.001-05:00

Currently located on the southern edge of Johnson county Kansas, just south of the Kansas City metro area with a view of I35 on the live camera. Expect a band of moderate to heavy snow to move into the area shortly and expect visibilities to fall to a half-mile or less at times... Check out the current stream for your view of winter weather! And keep in mind the stream is available for media use by contacting me at the number below the video...

Live Streaming Video: http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

Live Winter Storm Video

2010-03-20T09:13:00.000-05:00

Watching the next swath of snowfall making its' way northeast and will be entering the Kansas City area withing the next hour or so... Am preparing everything and will be running the live stream as I head southward out of the Kansas City area and down toward the Johnson/Miami county lines. Will watch the initial band come through and perhaps travel a bit of the countryside down there to view any blowing snow and drifting that is occurring.

To view the live stream please visit the following link: http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

Please be patient as the stream will not likely be going until ~10AM this morning, but will likely continue to stream until I arrive back home around the Noon hour or so for some lunch, and for some of the true march madness to get underway this afternoon.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #7

2010-03-20T08:01:00.000-05:00

A nice lull in the snowfall this morning as the frontal precipitation has moved off to the east, and the first indications of a deformation/trowal band are taking shape across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and moving northeast. This will be the next round of snow that will likely enter the area after 10am and continue into a good portion of the afternoon hours. Will monitor this band of snow which will likely be several more inches of snow to areas along/south of I35/I335 and I70 in Kansas, and along/south of I70 in western Missouri.

Current snowfall totals vary across the region, and stretch from the Texas panhandle and southwest Oklahoma clear up into southern Wisconsin! A widespread 2.5-4" occurred over the Kansas City Metro area, with areas just southeast receiving less amounts as the change from rain/sleet to snow occurred later and the heavier band of precipitation were north. For a graphical look at the local storm reports from Midnight until 8am select the link below:

IEM Local Storm Reports (3/20 @ 12AM-8AM)

Live stream will likely begin ~11AM this morning as the next round of snow moves into the area. Details regarding locations are still unknown at this time as I'm taking a wait and see approach to how this next band develops. An additional update is likely when I prepare to head out the door and begin Live streaming.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #6

2010-03-20T01:39:00.000-05:00

Snow continues through the overnight hours and will likely continue for the Kansas City Metro before some subsiding occurs near 4-6am. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are common across the metro region, with some higher amounts just north in areas of Leavenworth county and near St. Joseph, MO. A brief period of thundersnow was reported and confirmed via ASOS reports of lightning just to the east of Topeka and continued into parts of Leavenworth county.

Been a long day and I aim to be up early in the morning to once again provide some live video of the Kansas City area. With some light there will be some better views and hopefully a little better road conditions! Keep track here for the latest updates on when the live streaming will begin and what locations I will likely be streaming from as the trowal axis of the low pressure system skirts by the Kansas City area.

Winter Storm: Streaming Live!

2010-03-19T23:50:00.002-05:00

With a band of moderate to heavy snow likely entering southwest portions of Kansas City I am going to do a little test run and grab some video of the heavy snow and blowing snow around the Shawnee, KS area. I'll likely be live around 12:10AM, select the link below to view the stream:

http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #5

2010-03-19T23:31:00.000-05:00

Snow has quickly overspread the Kansas City metro tonight, with a short period of both light rain and sleet occurring this evening areas at least on the Kansas side have switched to moderate snow around 11pm. Snowfall is already beginning to accumulate on roadways, and strong northwest winds is blowing the snow around as it falls to the ground. Currently getting all of the equipment ready and may head out for a short period of time to grab some nighttime video of the start of the storm. Tomorrow morning I will likely also be out and around the Kansas City area barring decent snowfall is ongoing for some live video and for perhaps a small package of video. I'll update here as necessary if I am going mobile...

Current expectation is for 4-6" of snow here in Johnson County Kansas, with a widespread 2-5" across the metro with higher amounts of ~6" towards the southern edges. May not have to go too far further to see snowfall amounts of 6-8" and even higher dependent upon the trowal axis tomorrow afternoon.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #4

2010-03-19T10:58:00.000-05:00

Just a quick update with the 12z model runs... Amazing to think I'm sitting with the sliding door wide open letting the great outdoor air in at the moment, give another 12 hours and we'll be nearing 32 degrees and snow!!

The 12z NAM stays consistent with the frontal passage across Kansas and Missouri during the overnight hours, however, has changed the trowel strength and maximums once again. With a surface low path further south compared to previous runs the best area for significant snow will be over parts of Oklahoma into extreme southeast Kansas and perhaps into portions of southwest/western Missouri. The 12z GFS is similar with a surface low track through Arkansas just a little further southeast, thus the best trowal now located a little further southeast away from the Kansas City Metro.

Will likely get the 'live' setup going late tonight after I arrive home from work, but may not turn it on until the early morning hours so that there is truly something to view besides a dark view of the ground. Expect to see white ground by sunrise Saturday over Kansas City, with total accumulations of ~4" along and south of I70, with 2-4" for the areas north of I70. An additional update is likely tonight ~11PM or shortly thereafter...

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #3

2010-03-19T08:27:00.000-05:00

The off-hour model runs (06z) last night kept some consistency, although they both once again depicted some areas seeing over 18" of snowfall in eastern Oklahoma. No drastic changes nonetheless, and we have Winter Storm Watches now posted for large areas of northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and western Missouri. Areas currently under the Winter Storm Watch are expected to see at least 6" of snow through Saturday evening. This heaviest swath is fairly consistent with my wording last night of where the heaviest snowfall is likely to occur, south of I35/I335 and I70 in Kansas and then between I70 and I44 in western Missouri.

I work this afternoon, thus will not be able to update during the afternoon hours as the cold front begins to dive into the area and we finally start to find out how quickly the change-over from rain to snow will occur. Current indications are that a few hours of rain in Kansas City before we see snow mixing in and a change over to all snow just after Midnight tonight. The heaviest snow will not likely come with this first band of frontal precipitation, but rather the trowal development that will occur on Saturday and likely skirt the southern portions of the Kansas City Metro. Will post another update after the 12z runs are available and hopeful confirm the going forecast, but would expect to see at least 4-6" of snow for areas of Kansas City south of I70. The heaviest snowfall totals still look to occur over portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, but the remaining areas under the Winter Storm Watch aren't going to escape without some hefty amounts as well.

Additional update expected ~11AM...

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #2

2010-03-19T00:03:00.002-05:00

Just a quick update to post two model images from tonight, both the NAM and GFS 00z snowfall forecasts courtesy of Earl Barker's Model Page. The snow algorithm used here is a max-temp in profile, although not as high as an omega or Cobb algorithm output, it is still likely higher than what you will actually see. This will be due to melting that will initially occur with any snowfall (due to warm ground temperatures), but then also compaction as the snow is expected to be quite wet and heavy at times. With that, the two images are below (NAM above, GFS below):

The Madness Continues... Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20

2010-03-18T23:32:00.000-05:00

In the NCAA Tournament there is still plenty of good games with a Tennessee vs San Diego State game going down to the wire, and a Texas vs Wake Forest game going into overtime. This has been one of the best first days of the tournament that I can remember...

In other madness, there is very high confidence of a winter storm taking shape over parts of the Central/Southern Plains with the potential for 8"+ of localized snowfall and sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts of 45 mph. The question has been on the exact location of this heaviest band, which has been hindered not only by model differences but by run-to-run differences as well. The latest NAM (00z) has continued its' idea of a frontal passage over Kansas and northwest Missouri Friday night continuing into central Missouri during the day on Saturday. As this front continues into central Missouri the upper low deepens dramatically over Oklahoma and into Arkansas while the surface low tracks over northern Arkansas and then into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday. This sets up the trowal axis over parts of extreme eastern Kansas and into western Missouri with the potential for over 12" of snow! The NAM has been the outlier and was widely discounted, but the latest solution is quite similar to the latest run (00z) of the GFS. The difference lies within the trowal location, as the GFS has the precipitation wrapped tighter/closer to the surface low. The difference is less than 100 miles between the two, but the question remains on the solution to the ECMWF which has been the preferred model as of late. I do feel confident enough to indicate that the heaviest swath of snow is likely to fall between I70 and I44 in Missouri, back into areas of eastern Kansas south of I70 & I335/I35.

I have a few errands to do tomorrow morning, but will try and take a quick look at the 12z runs and make a quick update here. I will likely have a live stream running locally by tomorrow evening with a view out into the yard... Am still entertaining the possibility of a mobile live stream depending upon the location of the heaviest band of snow.

March (Model) Madness

2010-03-18T21:56:00.000-05:00

The NCAA tournament got underway with some great games in the first round, including a few upsets and a few other games that went down to the wire. I have a few brackets that are still looking pretty good through the afternoon/evening games. But, the true madness is that of the forecast models and their differing solutions regarding the upcoming storm system for the Central and Southern Plains this weekend.

As previously mentioned it appeared that we were beginning to trend towards a solution, however, we definitely didn't improve upon the agreement this afternoon. The ECMWF would appear to have the best run-to-run consistency compared to the GFS and NAM, and it also has the furthest south track with the initial shortwave and the eventual closed low over the Southern Plains. The 12z GFS run had similarities, but the 18z also came up with a differing solution in regards to the initial frontal band of precipitation. Thus far the NAM has been thrown to the side for the most part, especially after the 12z run indicated a foot or two possible across Kansas/Missouri.

The storm system is very complicated in itself, dealing with the timing of an initial frontal passage and then the closing of the low somewhere over Oklahoma/Texas. Add in the problem of warm vs cold air and its' timing and we are looking at a sharp gradient between over 1" of rain and upwards of 6" of snow. A lot of questions may not likely be answered until the event gets underway and you can watch the lower level winds and temperature profiles to determine how much and if any is going to fall over certain locations. It still would appear that an area of Kansas/Missouri will see a swath of 6"+ through the day on Saturday; and the heaviest may very well occur over eastern Oklahoma with potentially 12"+ possible. Tomorrow morning after viewing the 12z model runs I will hopefully feel confident enough to say where this heaviest swath is likely to occur...

An additional update is possible late tonight after the 00z model runs are completed (~11pm) otherwise a quick update tomorrow morning can be expected.

Weekend Snow Storm?!?

2010-03-18T11:49:00.000-05:00

Models had continued their questionable outputs in regards to snowfall and transition of rain to snow over the Central Plains on Friday night and Saturday, but are once again coming into a trend towards a solution. This mornings' GFS and NAM both had a fairly similar solution in regards to snow amounts over Kansas/Missouri, but still having slightly different tracks in regards to speed and north/south variability in the surface low. The ECMWF has been fairly consistent in a solution for the past few runs, and via current NWS discussions it would appear that it has the slight edge in regards to forecasting value.

I'll have a better chance during the afternoon today to look at the various models and see what the 18z and early indications of the 00z models have to say. An update later this evening/tonight will be likely...

Looks like we'll see the change from rain to snow during the overnight Friday, and there should be enough cold air spilling in that we keep the precipitation as snow even as we hit the daylight hours Saturday. A lot of questions regarding snowfall amounts not only because of the model variability, but the fact that we will have temperatures in the 60s and sunny skies for today and Friday and we'll see rain before the change which will allow the wet surfaces to melt the initial snow as well. If we had cold ground and no initial rainfall we could easily be looking at 6-12" with even higher isolated amounts across portions of Kansas/Missouri. However, with the questions raised above it would appear that we will struggle to see anything higher than a 4-6" widespread swath. Again, I'll update more later on this evening.

In regards to the weekend event, I'm entertaining the idea of setting up a live stream for the duration of the storm. For the most part this would be at a stagnant location, but if requested by any local media sources could become a live mobile stream.

Where's the Sun?!?

2010-03-16T07:57:00.001-05:00

We've been going the past several days with mornings' filled with low level clouds and high moisture values leading to sprinkles and mist. Today is no exception, and it looks to continue tomorrow morning as well. Yesterday during the late afternoon hours we were able to see the sunshine in Kansas City as the low level stratus finally cleared out, but the clouds made their return during the overnight.

A disturbance is going to slide north to south across the Northern Plains today, and over along the Missouri/Kansas border overnight tonight arriving into the Southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much for dynamics, and even less in regards to moisture to use for precipitation. This means we'll mainly see the cloud cover continuing, with a few rounds of sprinkles or light showers across western Iowa, and Western Missouri. This will be out of the area by Wednesday morning, and we should dry out and clear out by Wednesday evening. The clear skies will continue into Thursday and through most of Friday before out next storm system will bring in the next round of clouds and definitely a round of heaviest precipitation for the Central Plains.

This storm system for Friday and into the weekend is something to keep an eye on, as of yesterday morning it was the operational GFS that was the outlier showing a decent storm system. However, several models by the afternoon hours were showing a trend towards the operational GFS solution and the last 4 runs of the operational GFS have all continued with a similar solution. The surprising and questionable solution at this point is the amounts of snowfall that is forecasted with the operational GFS on the cold side of the system. Just for humor, last nights 00z operational GFS showed a surface low tracking along southern Kansas/Missouri leading to a swath of snow across western and central Kansas, into northeast Kansas and into northwest Missouri. With ~18" of snow in Russell as the maximum, but a solid swath of 6-10" across the remainder of the locations named above. For the Kansas City Metro this meant a gradient of 1-8" from south-to-north across the metro area. Now keep in mind that I am not saying that this is going to be correct, as there is a lot of questions regarding the track and amount of cold air that can influx into the region. Also the ground temperatures are going to be quite warm after seeing temperatures near the 60 degree mark on Friday, thus if snow did fall how much of it would melt trying to get the surface temperature down to the freezing mark. I'll continue to update this week as we near this storm system, the first one of Spring that has the potential to give us snow!!

Thunderstorms to Snow?!?

2010-03-10T22:05:00.003-06:00

Numerous clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of the Central and Southern Plains tonight, with a continued risk of a few severe/tornadic storms through the early overnight. The tornadic threat today across much of the risk area in Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri was hindered by shallow moisture layer. Which when subjected to continued mixing during the afternoon led to marginal dew points in the 40s for most areas, and even meager dew point depressions. With the addition of early showers and cloud cover to areas just ahead of the low pressure system, little instability, especially in the lower levels, was present to aid in the development of strong convection. Nonetheless convection was able to fire, especially just ahead of the scattered showers/sprinkles in extreme northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri during the evening. Marginally severe hail and some rotation was noted on the stronger cells, and although tornadoes were reported thus far no damage reports have been received.

This current storm system is sliding to the north and will become vertically stacked over Iowa. Leading to continued wrap-around moisture and thus ongoing scattered showers through the day on Friday. Cold air advection will also be present to the west and southwest of the vertically stacked low, thus conditions may become favorable for at least a wintery mix of precipitation during the overnight Thursday into Friday for parts of northern Kansas and Missouri. Areas including the Kansas City Metro may see a few hours of a rain/snow mix early Friday, although with current surface temperatures there will not likely be any accumulation. Areas of northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska and adjacent areas of extreme southwest Iowa may not be quite as lucky with snowfall becoming heavy enough for accumulations at least on grassy surfaces. Models are having a hard time depicting the magnitude of cold air and its' association with any lift to aid in snowflake development, in addition to warm surface temperatures will lead to models likely overestimating the accumulated snowfall.

Temperatures a little below average through the weekend, but we'll at least start to dry off after a decent amount of spring rainfall. The other story to watch through the weekend will by the flooding on several rivers in the Northern and Central Plains. Making matters worse in a high number of ice jams that are also occurring thanks to rapid melting. These ice jams can create rapidly rising waters and are very hard to forecast, thus anyone in flood prone areas should pay close attention to water levels through the weekend and beyond.

Got to hear a few rumbles of thunder in Kansas City, nothing overly impressive but it was a nice sound to hear. Wait and see about a few snowflakes and then hopefully get back on track towards spring!!

Severe Weather - Mar. 10

2010-03-10T08:30:00.000-06:00

Models continue to indicate the potential for severe weather across portions of the Central and Southern Plains for this afternoon, evening, and overnight. A low pressure system currently ejecting onto the Plains will continue to trek east-northeast across Oklahoma and into the southeast corner of Kansas by 6pm this evening. The low is then expected to move nearly northward as it gets ingested by the upper level system located over the northern Plains. Moisture return is ongoing this morning ahead of the surface low pressure and will continue through this evening, however, dew point values along the surface warm front and near the surface low are likely to only reach near 50F. Slightly higher dew points are possible further south along the dryline in eastern Oklahoma, however, surface temperatures are also expected to be higher resulting in similar LCL's across the region.

Sufficient surface based cape, at or above 1000 J/kg, will be present in the warm sector resulting in surface based convection around or just after 3pm near the surface low and southward along the dryline. Additional convection along the warm front will also likely develop during the late afternoon and move northeast along the warm front and surface low track during the overnight. These storms along the warm front will likely be a broken line and/or linear clusters therefore the severe weather threat is lower. However, an isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with these storms which may move into the Kansas City area after 10pm.

The storms along the low pressure system and especially the dryline will be a slightly different story, with the ability for surface based storms to remain somewhat discrete. Given strong low level shear and sufficient instability, storm type will likely be supercellular with the potential for very large hail and isolated tornadoes. The tornado threat may continue into the overnight across Arkansas where storms may be able to stay somewhat discrete, whereas further north storms will likely congeal and continue their potential for large hail and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gusts over southern Missouri. Many storm chasers are heading out today, with the majority of targets being the southeast corner of Kansas or northeast Oklahoma. As mentioned last night with my target area along Highway 169 at the Kansas/Oklahoma border; this hasn't appeared to change to much with this mornings' NAM.

I'll be in the office working this afternoon and evening, likely getting off just before our round of thunderstorms arrive in the Kansas City area. I'll be watching the storms initiate across the warm sector, however, no updates on the blog are expected until early tonight if at all.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential - Mar. 9

2010-03-09T08:30:00.000-06:00

A quick morning update on the potential for severe weather today as the surface low currently located over south-central Kansas will move northeastward and create the potential for severe weather this afternoon for areas of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The low pressure system has become vertically stacked overnight, creating a true cold-core thunderstorm setup over the Central Plains.

Moisture is still somewhat meager with dew points nearing 50 over much of the area this morning, while a few more degrees of moisture can be expected before this afternoon to bring dew points into the lower 50s the key for thunderstorm development today will likely be the instability. Some instability will be present simply due to the steep lapse rates created by the vertically stacked low, however, we will likely need to see some sunshine over the area to give us better low-level instability. Current satellite trends do not bode well for sunshine with a cluster of thunderstorms located just east of the surface low in Kansas, and its' associated cloud shield covering much of eastern Kansas under thick cumulus. We'll have to watch trends to see if we can get a dry/clear slot to rotate around the low pressure system late this morning or early this afternoon to give us a chance, but currently conditions don't bode well for our thunderstorm risk.

If we are able to see a few hours of sunshine to enhance the low level instability then we could see an enhanced risk for low topped supercells. This would create the potential for some brief cold air funnels and perhaps a quick cold core tornado or two given strong low level wind shear and vorticity present with the low pressure system. This currently seems to be at rather low probability, thus not too excited on the potential. Will try to update if anything changes this morning before I get into the office...

Thunderstorm Potential - Mar. 9

2010-03-08T17:13:00.014-06:00

There are a handful of storm chasers that made the trek down into western Oklahoma and Texas today for a marginal severe weather setup. Low-level wind shear is good in vicinity of the surface low, and while some cirrus has hindered full heating there does appear to at least be marginal instability for thunderstorms over the next few hours. Marginal hail and perhaps a brief tornado would appear possible given the latest parameters on the SPC Mesoanalysis page.

Looking ahead to tomorrow this surface low will continue to move northeast, into south-central Kansas during the overnight and then across into northwest Missouri during the day tomorrow before moving into Iowa by tomorrow night. The low pressure system will continue to be vertically stacked, creating steep lapse rates and the potential for thunderstorms. Per the 12z NAM it would appear that during the early afternoon hours given diurnal heating that some surface instability and especially mixed layer instability would be present across parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Given marginal instability and strong low level vorticity given the proximity to vertically stacked low pressure system that a brief window of development for low-topped supercells would exist. Given cold temperatures aloft, marginal hail would be a threat; in addition to strong low level shear that would warrant the potential for a tornado or two as well.

An additional update is possible either late tonight or early tomorrow regarding any changes to the potential for severe weather for the Central Plains. I work during the afternoon tomorrow, thus no chase activities are planned and blog updates are not expected.

Ahhh... Sunshine!!

2010-03-04T22:32:00.000-06:00

Another bright and sunshine filled day today, with surface winds becoming southerly in the afternoon to aid in our warming temperatures. Highs today were widely in the 50s for areas without snow cover, even well into the 40s for those on the southern portions of the snowpack. Areas further north across Iowa were still held into the 30s due to the large snow pack in their area, plus the surrounding. Nonetheless the warm air temperature and unabated sun did allow for melting which showed up as some dense fog during the morning hours. We'll look for another day of warming temperatures and clear skies for a majority of the Central Plains tomorrow, just ahead of a disturbance that will be developing in the lee of the Rockies.

This upper level system is a fairly compact, but strong system that will bring a good chance of rain and even isolated thunderstorms to portions of the central Plains. Latest model tracks have continued the trend of a cut-off low pressure system moving east/northeast from eastern Colorado into central Nebraska Friday night, then slowly meandering eastward across Iowa through Saturday night. This will lead to a good chance of rain showers for areas north of I70 in both Kansas and Missouri and as far north as the Dakota borders and central Minnesota. Most of this precipitation should fall as rain, however, as the upper level low continues to deepend and cool areas north of Highway 30 in northeast Nebraska and Iowa as well as adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and southern Minnesota may be able to see some mixed precipitation and snowfall. The wintery precipitation will have its' best chance late Saturday through early Sunday with accumulations remaining minimal for most areas. Decent amounts of rain are possible for the remainder of the area, including those that have several inches of water frozen in their snowpacks. This will amount to some rapid rises in rivers over the weekend and may in turn cause flooding concerns for areas of Iowa and places downstream.

Many people are still watching the stronger system for early next week, with many eyes on it for the first severe weather event for the Plains states. Moisture return is weak thus far, but there is still several days of warming and moistening to go for many areas of the southern Plains. The latest GFS and its' ensembles have taken the further south track today with the center of the 500hPa low tracking along the Oklahoma/Kansas border into Arkansas on Tuesday. This is seemingly becoming the favorite solution of the models, at least until the disturbance comes ashore and the models actually get a good look at its' dynamics. Nonetheless, expect rain to dominate the forecast for the southern and central Plains for early next week. With the best chance of thunder coming for areas of Texas and Oklahoma, however areas of Kansas/Missouri can't rule out the thunder given intense lapse rates under the closed low aloft. One of the best highlights with this southern track is that there is really no cold air to be advected south, thus we'll keep temperatures near normal for most of next week. Could we be looking at a sign that spring may actually be arriving?!?

An additional update is possible tomorrow, however a 3-day weekend and continued warm weather will hopefully keep me busy with other things!

Quiet Weather Continues...

2010-03-02T21:58:00.001-06:00

Mainly sunny skies and slowly warming temperatures have been the story thus far this week. And this looks to continue through the remainder of the week given current forecasts. A disturbance is expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies on Friday, leaving areas of Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with a chance of showers through the day on Friday. This low will push off into the Plains on Saturday, continuing the chance of showers for areas of Kansas, Missouri, and southern portions of Nebraska and Iowa. There will be enough cold air to see more wintery precipitation for areas of northern Nebraska and northern Iowa, along with adjacent areas of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

As this system exits to the Great Lakes, our next wave of energy will moving across the Rockies and likely resulting in a new low pressure along the front range in Colorado. With the previous low sliding well north compared to previous storms, ample southerly flow is expected across the southern and central Plains. This means warm temperatures and increasing moisture across much of the Plains. Temperatures may reach above normal levels for the first time in several months for areas of the central Plains, with 50s and 60s likely on Sunday and Monday. These above average temperatures may be short-lived as the low pressure will begin to enter the Plains and bring widespread precipitation chances. The timing and exact track of the surface low, along with the strength of the upper-level features continue to be in question. The latest GFS runs have actually began to decrease the intensity of the closed low aloft. Nonetheless, discussion continues about the potential for the first good severe weather event for the Plains states which at this time would appear to occur over portions of western Texas/Oklahoma, and perhaps Kansas depending upon the surface low track. The talk also continues about the potential for a strong winter storm, with ample moisture if the low can bring down enough cold air we could see a strong deformation zone filled with snowfall across parts of the northern Plains. Given a forecasted strong pressure gradient, wind speeds would also be in the 20+ mph range and likely result in widespread blowing snow. Many questions remain for this storm system, and as mentioned previously is the main talk as we enjoy sunny skies and warm temperatures.

Quiet Weather... For Now

2010-02-28T22:16:00.000-06:00

Quiet weather continued through the weekend, with clear skies dominating the forecast. These clear skies allowed temperatures to moderate well over the weekend, with high temperatures into the 40s across the areas with little to no snow-pack and into the upper 20s and near 30 for those that do. The clear skies also gave way to cool overnight temperatures given ample variational cooling with the light winds. Conditions like this will continue for much of the week with a high pressure system centered over the Northern Plains.

A storm system will pass through the Southern Plains on Monday, and continue into the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Behind this we will see a large scale ridge build into the Plains for midweek, allowing for another warm-up with temperatures likely reaching normal or perhaps even a few readings of above normal temperatures for Thursday/Friday! A quick wave will move across the Rockies on Friday and begin to flatten this ridge for the beginning of the weekend. This quick moving system will have enough energy that it may bring with it the chance of precipitation for areas of the Plains. At this time there is significant differences in the track and speed of the associated vorticity maximum and thus confidence is not very high to mention any areas or times for precipitation.

Behind this initial wave comes a system that has been well advertised by both the GFS and ECMWF for the past several days. A very strong upper level wave associated with great dynamics throughout its' lifetime as it crosses over the Plains and moves into the Great Lakes region. Details regarding position and exact timing are of course in question, given the near 60 hour difference in timing the GFS and ECMWF currently have. The track is a little more agreeable between the two models, given a low developing over the lee of the Rockies in Colorado and tracking eastward into KS/NE seems probable, with a quick ejection northwest into the Great Lakes region once reaching the Missouri River thanks to a strong jet maximum in the upper levels. This system has the potential to be one of the first severe weather producers given its' good dynamics and likely thermodynamics (50s for temperatures & dew points). Although the best bet would be a cold core situation close to the low pressure system. Other than the potential for severe weather, conditions to the northwest of the low center would likely endure blizzard conditions for at least a period of time. Moisture will be ample in addition to strong dynamics and deepening surface low, thus a strong deformation zone is likely. Given the tight pressure gradient, surface winds sustained above 30 mph would also appear likely with even higher gusts. Once again the exact location and timing are definite questions, but it does appear favorable for a significant storm system for the Plains in the March 8-11 time frame. Additional updates through the week will likely reference this storm for a majority of the discussion.

Cold Air...

2010-02-24T23:51:00.000-06:00

Just a short update tonight as the weather is extremely quiet for a majority of the Plains through the remainder of the week. Cold temperatures was the story this morning, with a record low set at St. Joseph, MO (-2) and a record low tied at Kansas City International (2). Single digits were prominent over much of the Northern Plains, with teens over the Central Plains this morning. Below zero lows were common, with teens below zero for areas of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. The lows tonight won't be too much warmer, with many single digits and below zero readings expected.

Feb. 24 Morning Low Temperatures

Looking ahead through the rest of the week, we'll slowly begin to warm-up through the weekend, although temperatures will remain below normal to well below normal for many areas of the Plains. A storm system will intensify on Thursday over the southern Plains, leading to areas of snow for southern Kansas and Oklahoma. The low pressure system associated with the snowfall will quickly move southeast on Thursday night and Friday, leaving areas of the southern Plains and perhaps even the lower Mississippi Valley under a blanket of snow.

With all of the precipitation remaining south, we'll continue to see fairly clear skies. The sun is beginning to feel pretty warm though, which is hopefully a sign that if we can begin to get rid of some of the snow that is currently covering the Plains that we can at least begin to see normal temperatures! Next update is expected on Saturday for a look at next week!

Feb. 21/22 Recap & A Look Ahead

2010-02-22T22:29:00.001-06:00

The storm system this past weekend brought a mix of precipitation types to parts of the central Plains. Areas of flooding occurred and are ongoing due to substantial rainfall amounts across central Missouri this past weekend. An area from south-central Kansas into the Kansas City Metro saw ice accumulations of a few tenths to nearly a half-inch in a few isolated areas. Sleet was also a common precipitation type over the weekend, with several roadways in eastern Kansas and western Missouri becoming hazardous with slush accumulations of a half-inch or greater. And lastly there was snow, varying from around an inch on the south side of the Kansas City Metro and across I70 in Missouri to just an inch or so over parts of southern Iowa. In between however, a swath of 6-10 inches covered areas of northern Missouri with isolated amounts nearing 12 inches. Strong northwest winds allowed for blowing and drifting of the snow as well, creating large drifts in open areas and making travel impossible in some areas through the day on Sunday. To view all of the reports that came in from the region, check out the link posted below:

http://www.severeplains.com/snowfall_022210.html

To view other reports from the region, check your local NWS office homepage. The NWS in Kansas City has also provided a brief summary of the events that occurred in the metro area in regards to precipitation types. This includes a vertical cross-section image that shows the warm layer just above the surface that was responsible for the freezing rain over the southern metro area. The ongoing snow continues to make its' way into the record books, with a record daily snowfall at Kansas City International. With rounds of snowfall in Des Moines on Friday, they continued to increase their snow depth and continue to break records for the most consecutive and non-consecutive days with specific snow depth amounts. Plenty of other records are out there being broken as well, with plenty more likely to fall as the winter isn't about to give in to Spring.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the week, a cold front will sweep through the Plains tomorrow bringing with it the chance of flurries and some light snow mainly Iowa and eastern Missouri. Accumulations are expected to be little to none across the region due to limited moisture and meager lift along the boundary. The cold front passage will bring a reinforcement of cold air that will keep us well below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system on Friday will bring the chance of precipitation to areas of the southern Plains, will have to watch and see how far north the precip chances can make it for Friday.

Potential Winter Storm(s)

2010-02-17T18:13:00.000-06:00

I decided on one more update before I head back to Iowa for the remainder of the week, seeing as with such nice weather today there was only the upcoming two storm systems to look forward too. Models are beginning to show some agreement, or at least a few models are coming to the same agreement with this mornings' and afternoon model runs. Essentially the confidence is building that we will see a rain/snow event mainly over areas of Kansas and Missouri for both Friday and Sunday.

Friday: Both the 12z and 18z NAM showed consistency in their solution, which had been the outlier when compared to other model runs yesterday. However, this morning the runs of both the Canadian GEM and European ECMWF trended to a stronger solution. Still not as strong as the operational NAM, but is something to think about in regards to the strength of the upper level wave that will be moving across the area on Friday. For this reason, expect precipitation amounts to be higher than the GFS, but not as strong as the NAM. The other large question will be regarding temperatures, as with a stronger solution should come better warm air advection just ahead of the trough. This would likely lead to a rain/snow mix near/along I70, with snowfall likely just north and all rain further south. This is shown fairly well in the NAM, with a tight gradient of no snow to heavy snow essentially focused over Kansas City and other areas along I70. The most likely scenario will have a true mix of rain and snow for the Kansas City area, with ~1" of a heavy wet snow likely across the area. Areas just north of the KC Metro may see up to 2" of snow, while just south may only see a dusting. This will be a tricky forecast, thus even any subtle changes in the track/strength of the system could drastically change the snowfall forecast.

Sunday: Models are beginning to creep towards a consensus in allowing the pacific wave to come onshore and across the Rockies without much inhibition by the emerging blocking pattern. This would lead to a stronger system, and with ample moisture available may lead to some significant snowfall amounts over some portion of the central Plains. This is another system that will feature a tight gradient of no snow to heavy snow, as the thermal gradient along the surface and lower levels will be quite dramatic. The 18z GFS left this gradient nearly along I70 in Missouri and along I35 in Kansas, with areas north seeing mainly snow (perhaps heavy at times) and areas south seeing mainly rain. That does leave a small area that will be along the transition line that would see a mix of rain/snow and perhaps even some sleet or freezing rain dependent upon localized thermal profiles. The 12z Canadian has a similar solution in regards to strength and only slightly slower in timing, location-wise it is approximately 50-100 miles further south than the GFS. The ECMWF has been the outlier in regards to timing and strength with this system, and continues to be so. However, it has trended a little faster and stronger in the latest 12z run thus increasing the likelihood that a solution similar to the GFS/GEM can be expected. With this in mind, it does appear likely that some portions of Kansas/Missouri will have the potential of significant snowfall for Sunday. The band of heaviest snow would appear to have the potential for greater than 8" of snowfall, with this band being quite narrow it is going to be difficult to forecast for at this time. However, expect forecasts from local sources to begin more discussion on this event as the weekend nears.

Which System?!?

2010-02-16T19:39:00.000-06:00

I decided to get one more post in before I head away on a trip back to Iowa for the Iowa State High School Wrestling Tournament. The reason for the update is mainly as a initial thoughts on what could be an interesting weather weekend for the central Plains states. Two waves are likely to travel across portions of the Plains and may bring the chance of precipitation, in both liquid and solid form. The best part about the upcoming forecast is that there really has not been a forecast model to get a good grip on a solution to this point. With the NAM favoring the initial wave, the GFS favoring the second wave, the ECMWF favoring the second but also being even slower, and the SREF ensembles which range anywhere from 0.00" to 0.97" for Kansas City Intl into this weekend. These are just subtle changes either, the 12z & 18z NAM today put out nearly 1"/hour rates of snowfall for Friday and Friday night leading to what the NAM believes is a foot of snow by Saturday at dawn for the Kansas City area! The GFS on the other hand, does not send out as much energy with the first wave and hence gives the Kansas City area a solid 0.00" of precipitation through Saturday morning.

The reason for the discrepancies is due to a wave of energy that will drop down into the Rockies late Thursday, and another wave that will drop southward from our arctic low. These two waves of energy would likely incur some phasing as they entered the Plains states on Friday, but the question that the models are trying to answer is how much energy from the 'southern' wave will actually eject out onto the Plains. The NAM of course has a majority of the wave coming out onto the Plains and thus forecasting a large amount of precipitation with it. The GFS on the other hand will keep most of the energy in the Rockies, providing little to no precipitation for the late week.

What happens with the initial wave will likely have large impacts on our second wave for Sunday/Monday. Looking at the ensemble members, you can judge that those which have this stronger system on Friday do not have as much energy shown with Sun/Mon and thus do not expect much of an impact with this system. With the ensemble members that do not expect much on Friday, have a much larger and significant system for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Essentially if a majority of our first wave is held back in the Rockies, it will contribute to the second wave that will be pushed out onto the Plains with the storm system entering the West Coast late Friday.

Although a good amount of time was spent looking at things today, it is still very hard to tell which model may have a better handle of this that far out. It would appear that it may be best to hedge towards the second event being the largest of the two, leading to some significant precipitation for Sunday/Monday across the central Plains. However, as mentioned it is pretty hard to make much of a justification for this. For now I will keep an eye on it as it may disrupt my travel plans for a return from Des Moines, but I won't likely see time to post any updates on the blog. For now keep an eye on what the various forecasters have to say, as it will be interesting to see who throws their hat out into prediction of the big storm as either Friday or Sunday/Monday.

The next update will likely not come until early next week, perhaps even after both storm systems have exited and there is a little downtime to post a recap of what occurred, or what didn't! In the meantime, enjoy a few days of quiet weather before we at least have a chance at adding to some snow totals across the Plains.

Winter Storm: Feb. 14 Recap

2010-02-15T20:47:00.001-06:00

Snowfall over the weekend held a few surprises, the biggest coming with a 'snow squall' in the Kansas City area that led to multiple pileups on interstates within the metro. These snow squalls were caused by strong lapse rates and elevated instability that was collocated with the best dendritic growth zone (-10 to -20C). This allowed for rapid snowfall associated with strong northwest winds, creating near-zero visibility for a short period (~15 minutes) across several areas near the Kansas City metro. For a little more background and a few graphics, check out the link below from Kansas City NWS and for a more meteorological review check out the blog post by Jon Davies:

Kansas City Valentine's Day Snow Squall

Jon Davies Snow Squall Blog Post

The heaviest bands of snowfall occurred across parts of eastern Nebraska, western/central Iowa and into northeast Missouri and other areas along the Mississippi River. The upper level low made its' turn east and allowed the heaviest snowfall to occur into parts of Illinois and Indiana. A few maps of the snowfall totals from this weekend are also posted below:

Omaha NWS Sunday Snowfall Image

St. Louis NWS Sunday-Monday Snowfall Image

Springfield NWS Regional Snowfall Map

Winter Weather - Feb. 13/14

2010-02-13T15:54:00.000-06:00

Snow ongoing over parts of northern Iowa, western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas with some heavy snow reports even coming in at times. A few reports that have came in already include 4" in Sioux Falls, SD and 2.5" in Rock Rapids, IA. This snow will continue to expand through the overnight, and slowly make its' way southward as a surface low forms in association with the upper level low that has made its' way into the eastern Dakotas. No major changes in forecasted snow totals with a band of 3-5" and isolated 6" amounts still seeming likely from western/central Iowa south/southeast through central and eastern Missouri. The latest Kansas City NWS graphic shows a pretty good depiction of forecasted snow totals.

Beyond the snowfall, expect northwest winds to increase during the overnight and Sunday for the area. Leading to blowing and drifting snow and hazardous driving conditions for your Valentines' Day. Cold and breezy conditions will continue through Monday before we see the sun again and a slight warm-up through midweek.

Weekend Snowfall

2010-02-12T22:47:00.001-06:00

The weekend rounds of winter weather continue to be fairly well handled by forecast models. No significant changes have occurred since my update yesterday, with two rounds of winter precipitation likely across the Central Plains. The first of which will occur Saturday with accumulations ranging from 1-3" across parts of Missouri and Iowa. A second more robust round of precipitation will occur as our low pressure system dives south along the NE/IA and KS/MO borders before sliding eastward across southern Missouri. The heaviest snowfall should occur in areas of northeast/central Missouri where a band of 3-6" is likely as the low pressure begins its' trek eastward. Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for areas of Missouri that are expected to see the heaviest snow accumulations.

Expect temperatures to drop dramatically as the low pressure system passes by, with increasing winds as well. All of this will lead to increased likelihood of snow accumulations on roadways and blowing snow leading to hazardous driving conditions on Sunday. We'll stay cold and breezy on Monday, with a few flurries continuing to fly as moisture is ringed out of the arctic air mass. We'll finally see the sun again on Tuesday, but likely remain below freezing for a majority of areas that saw the snow over the weekend.

Although areas of Missouri may see upwards of 6" of snow totals this weekend, I don't expect to make any additional updates regarding our weekend snowfall due to the weekend. I will likely post a recap on Monday/Tuesday to summarize any events that occurred and provide snow total maps. Enjoy the Valentines weekend...

A Few Disturbances...

2010-02-11T22:45:00.001-06:00

A few different blobs of information today, the first of which will be about a weak disturbance that is making its' way through the Plains tonight and tomorrow. The next about a disturbance currently over the southern Plains, giving areas of northern Texas over a half-foot of snow and still going. And finally we'll get to the next large storm system for the Plains states that will come across on Valentine's weekend.

So for the first disturbance to discuss, an upper level wave associated with a weak surface low pressure system is colocated across the Iowa/Nebraska borders at this time. These two features will continue to rotate down into Missouri during the overnight hours, and push eastward during the day tomorrow. At this time the system is going to lack moisture and sufficient large scale lift to give areas anything more than an inch or so of snowfall. These areas of snow are going to be pretty small in terms of coverage as well. Portions of northern Missouri and southern Iowa may see ~1" of snow during the overnight tonight, with the typical flurries for many other adjacent areas including Kansas City. This 'snowfall' will continue into areas of central and eastern Missouri during the afternoon tomorrow before exiting into the midwest and Ohio Valley by tomorrow night. This may be able to create some slick conditions for a few areas overnight, but does not appear to be a widespread event.

Our next discussion wil be about the upper level disturbance over the Southern Plains today that will continue to push eastward along the Gulf Coast tomorrow, developing an area of low pressure just off shore later this evening. With cold air already entrenched well south, this low pressure system will aid in pulling the cold air even further along the Gulf Coast and resulting in snowfall for many areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and even the Florida Panhandle! Accumulations along the shorelines are not expected to be significant, however areas not too far inland may see accumulations greater than 4". Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for many of these areas expecting to see snow through Friday.

Finally our discussion on the next significant storm for the Plains. As we head into the weekend, the next storm system to affect the northern and central Plains will begin to take shape. Diving nearly straight south out of Canada will come an upper level low and associated disturbances. Currently, models depict the upper level low traveling through eastern portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska before closing off at 500hPa and beginning its' turn eastward over Missouri. This is a path that would likely give areas of western/central Minnesota, western/central Iowa, and northeast Missouri the heaviest snows. Generally 3-6" will be a good estimate for these areas, with heavier amounts coming as the storm rotates eastward. Meaning areas of northeast Missouri and into central Illinois may see the heaviest amounts nearing ~8" as of current model runs. This system will enter/exit the Plains on the weekend, leaving us with cold and flurries by the start of next week. One thing to note for those watching the east coast get burried, this storm system also looks to take a track to give most of those areas at least a few more additional inches of snow for early next week!

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Recap

2010-02-09T20:14:00.001-06:00

Snowfall was heaviest over parts of eastern Minnesota and central/eastern Iowa where as much as 12" fell over the span of 48 hours. You can push back the span even further and see values increase to nearly 18" as the snow began over parts of the Plains well before the upper low became nearly stationary during the day yesterday. Currently only flurries and a few light snow showers are left across parts of the Plains, as the upper level low has begun its' trek into the Ohio Valley and eventually the east coast where it will once again dump several inches of snow. The upper low and its' associated features were an interesting sight to watch, as noted by the previous update that featured a surface plot of temperatures. What could be classified as a mesoscale high pressure system essentially formed along the upper level low and allowed clear skies and calm winds to drop temperatures dramatically over a short period of time last night and into this morning across parts of Iowa and Missouri. Strong northwest winds hampered travel conditions yesterday and much of today across the Plains, as blowing and drifting snow created slick road conditions. Even with areas simply receiving flurries and light snow the winds allowed for a drop in visibility and created some spotty areas of snow covered roads.

With the storm on its' decline for the Plains, several National Weather Service offices have issued their summaries of snowfall totals. They are listed below:

Minneapolis NWS Snowfall Map

Des Moines & Omaha may be added if available

Kansas City NWS Snowfall Map

St. Louis NWS Snowfall Map

Springfield NWS Snowfall Map

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #5

2010-02-09T10:24:00.000-06:00

Although the vast majority of moderate and heavy snowfall is out of the Plains region, lingering flurries and light snow are continuing across a large portion of the Plains due to the cold arctic air that is plunging in. This cold air is featured in the layer of the atmosphere that is favorable for snow growth, thus flurries or light snow is being condensed out and falling over several areas. While this snow isn't expected to accumulate much, the strong northwest winds will continue to blow any loose snow around. Some portions of Minnesota, Iowa and northern Missouri may be able to squeeze out another inch of snowfall with the persistent light snow that is featured next to the upper level low. For this reason many of the local NWS offices have yet to issue any maps regarding snowfall totals. If you would like to keep up with the totals in Iowa, the IEM has a automatically updating plot on snowfall totals available at the following link:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/lsr_snowfall.png

Some travel concerns continue where the snowfall was heavy enough and light enough to continue to blow and drift with the strong northwest winds. The winds are expected to slowly decrease this evening and through the overnight, relieving any travel concerns by tomorrow morning. A final recap on this winter storm will be posted when summary maps are available...

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #4

2010-02-08T21:21:00.001-06:00

A quick update with a look at a surface chart with contoured and color-filled gradient of surface temperatures, as well as 10-meter wind speeds overlayed. Can you tell me where the upper-low, cold front, and occlusion is occurring? A pretty impressive surface map with temperatures dropping like a rock across parts of northwest Iowa and adjacent areas, Spencer recorded a temperatures of -19 back at 8PM. These temperatures will slowly rise through the night as the low pressure overhead moves eastward and northwest winds actually advects warmer air into the area!

I'll post an additional update later on tonight or early tomorrow with some of the snow totals, currently it would look as if parts of eastern Iowa and Minnesota won the snow battle with 6-10" in that area. Portions of Missouri and Kansas were able to get into the 3-6" range with a few isolated higher amounts in southern Kansas. Parts of northern Arkansas also won the snow big with a few reports over 6" being received as well. This snow will continue over parts of eastern Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and other adjacent areas. More details on snow totals later... For now enjoy the fancy image below:

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #3

2010-02-08T09:02:00.001-06:00

Our winter storm continues across the Plains states, however, with decreasing forecasted snow totals for many regions. Nearly all locals have seen a decrease in their forecasted snow totals as the two systems are struggling to produce better than a light to moderate snowfall. While over time the light to moderate snow will still lead to heavy accumulations in some areas, mainly central and eastern Iowa, this will not lead to significant accumulations across most other areas due to the longevity of the storm. A cold front sweeping down through areas of the central Plains this afternoon/evening will put an end to the snowfall in some areas, which will hinder the storm totals that could otherwise continue to increase through the overnight.

The two storm systems will begin to conjoin during the day today, with continued snow across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma spreading eastward. Ongoing light to moderate snow is expected over areas of Iowa as the northern stream upper level low continues to dig and spin without much movement. This is still expected to leave two bands of heavier snow, one over Iowa and another over southern Kansas into portions of Missouri. The latest Kansas City NWS graphic has a good interpretation of these two bands, although don't expect to see accumulations too much higher than 5" in the band across Missouri.

An additional update is expected tonight as the arctic air begins to enter the Plains and aid in stopping the snowfall, I'll try and update on accumulations thus far as well.

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #2

2010-02-07T13:37:00.000-06:00

Several NWS offices have begun to issue their latest forecasted snow totals for portions of the Plains states. The Topeka NWS office has decreased their amounts compared to their first forecast, with only 5-7" expected in their warning area with less amounts to the north. This 5-7" line has shifted slightly south as well, just south of the Kansas City Metro to align with the forecasted totals from the Kansas City NWS office as well. The Des Moines NWS office on the other hand did actually increase the snow totals for parts of central and eastern Iowa where 10-13" is now forecasted. This area is currently the favorite to see a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow as the upper level low from the northern stream stalls for a moment during the day Monday before moving eastward during the evening and overnight. It is important to note that any changes in the path of the northern stream upper level low could create a change in the forecasted snow totals. I've posted the latest NWS maps regarding storm totals below, these are all as of 1:30 PM on Sunday.

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #1

2010-02-07T10:31:00.000-06:00

A truly complex situation has resulted in many questions regarding the amounts and placements of snowfall totals across the Plains states. An initial shortwave that is rounding the northern low pressure system is creating some light snow across parts of the central Plains this morning, with accumulations staying rather light through the day today. The more important feature will be a shortwave and associated trough that is currently making its' way into the four corners region this morning. This will continue to move eastward through the day and make its' way onto the Plains during the overnight, just ahead of this shortwave we will see a brief ridge develop in response to the digging trough which will allow a good return of moisture northward. As this trough continues eastward it will begin to interact with the cutoff low pressure system that will be positioned over the northern Plains, and this is where the forecast truly becomes complicated. These two features will eventually come together as one, with the southern stream shortwave allowing for the low pressure system to finally move eastward sometime on Monday. An interesting note found in the Kansas City NWS discussion shows just how unique this event is, as they were not able to find a good analog event for just such an instance. In other words, they do not have record of a similar event occurring this far east over the Plains states. All of this comes together to paint a very messy and snowy picture for the Plains, but a wide range of snowfall forecasts for this winter storm.

The morning models have really had a rough time this morning, with a variance of snowfall accumulations greater than 6 inches in some locations between the NAM and GFS. Of course the Kansas City Metro is once again along the line of receiving anywhere from 6-9" of snowfall to only 2-5" of snowfall depending upon the track of the southern wave and its' precipitation. We could also see a fluctuation in snowfall amounts depending upon where the two systems interact and begin to push eastward with a strong cold front. This has essentially led to a hedging of snowfall amounts for the area, with 4-8" a decent forecast at this point with so many questions remaining still only ~24 hours out. The hardest hit areas will likely be over southern Kansas and Missouri, and then eastern portions of Iowa/Minnesota ahead of the northern upper level low. Both of these areas will likely see 8"+ snowfall amounts by Tuesday morning. Other portions of eastern Missouri will likely see a good 4-8" swath of snowfall, while areas of northwest Missouri (W of I35, N of KC Metro), Nebraska, and extreme western Iowa will miss out on the majority of heavy snows and see less than 4" of snowfall. An additional update late tonight is expected, with any additional refining to snowfall totals based upon the location of the southern stream system.

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8

2010-02-06T23:43:00.000-06:00

Another winter storm featuring two waves of energy will impact the Plains states beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through the day on Monday into Monday night. A trough coming onshore that has just came ashore in the Pacific coast will continue eastward overnight and begin to deepen, pulling additional moisture northward into the central Plains once again. This will begin our snowfall during the afternoon/evening hours for Kansas/Missouri and will combine with the stronger northern system during the overnight and continue to produce snowfall for the day on Monday and into Monday night for eastern portions of Missouri. This northern system is a strong closed low that will rotate down into the Plains, pulling with it a strong push of arctic air. As the system moves east it will once again setup portions of the east coast for another significant snowfall event.

With another complex system comes another complex snowfall forecast, with even a few NWS offices not tipping their hand as to what they are thinking. It does appear that we will have a significant area of 6"+ snowfall over Kansas/Missouri/Iowa/Minnesota by Tuesday morning. A few areas may be able to pull off an 8"+ snowfall amount, especially those further east. Compared to the last system, this one will see snowfall become much drier, and therefore lighter allowing the wind to become a factor. This is especially true as a cold front brings northwest winds gusting upwards of 25 mph which will provide blowing and drifting snow over a large area of the Plains. With this systems' start time late Sunday, we will start to see NWS offices upgrade their winter storm watches to various advisories and warnings. An additional update tomorrow morning will put a final rough estimate of expected snowfall for the Plains states...

Winter Storm: Feb. 5 Recap

2010-02-06T23:21:00.000-06:00

A storm that featured two different waves of energy, the first of which was unorganized and allowed for very little snowfall across the central Plains states. The second wave of energy provided a unique situation across parts of KS/MO where a mesoscale snow-band allowed for accumulations at rates upwards of 2" per hour. This mesoscale band was the highlight of the event, as the system quickly became starved of both upper level support and continued moisture advection. Further to the north, a deformation zone across the Omaha area allowed for 3-5" over the two day stretch of Feb. 4/5 with lesser amounts to the east/west of the Missouri River.

Haven't had much time to really look at things with this event, as another strong storm system is aiming for the Plains states and will be the focus for the next post. Links to a few of the National Weather Service snowfall reports/maps are posted below:

Omaha NWS Snowfall Map

Kansas City NWS Snowfall Map

St. Louis NWS Snowfall Map

Winter Storm: Feb. 5 Update #1

2010-02-05T10:12:00.000-06:00

Light to moderate snow has fallen over the Kansas City area this morning, with nearly an inch of accumulation thus far. Snow is expected to continue here through the next couple of hours with at least another inch of accumulation likely. All but the northeast portion of Kansas has seen the snow taper to just flurries with much of their accumulations falling overnight with this initial band. Snowfall reports through central and eastern Kansas have varied from 0.5" to upwards of 2-4" in eastern Kansas where the snow has ended within the past few hours.

The band of snow that is currently over western Missouri and northeast Kansas will continue to move eastward through the afternoon, arriving along the Mississippi River during the late afternoon. Snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected across much of the state with this band, with only the far southern portions of the state being too warm to see significant snow accumulations. There may be a few isolated spots of 5 or 6 inch amounts across mainly central and east-central Missouri as models have indicated an area of enhanced snowfall growth.

Further north across Nebraska and Iowa, snowfall has tapered across most areas, with some snowfall still possible over southeast NE and southwest IA with this second wave and band of snow. Total accumulations overnight were greatest in the Omaha metro area where 3-4 inches fell with a few isolated higher amounts. Other areas of Iowa saw an inch or two last night, and a 1-3 inch swath was seen across parts of southern Nebraska.

A later update will include a recap of snowfall reports received over the central Plains region...

Winter Storm: Feb. 5

2010-02-05T00:56:00.000-06:00

Conditions and forecast remain on track for a minor winter storm to occur across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and other adjacent areas. A band of snowfall will continue to work east through the overnight hours across central and eastern Kansas, and continuing through the state of Missouri tomorrow. Total snow accumulations will likely range from 2-4 inches, however, some areas may see higher amounts where snow growth can be maximized for short periods of time. The best chance for these areas will be over portions of central and east-central Missouri during the afternoon hours tomorrow. These areas of enhanced snow growth may be able to see 3-6 inches of a heavy wet snow...

Expect some travel delays tomorrow morning across the Kansas City metro, with delays and concerns for the St. Louis metro during the commute back home tomorrow evening. Other parts of the state of Missouri will also have travel problems over all but the far southern region due to snowfall.

Further north in areas of Nebraska and extreme western Iowa a light to moderate snow will continue through much of the night, producing widespread 2-4 inch amounts across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. These amounts are also expected to be of a wet and heavy snow, which won't create any additional blowing or drifting snow problems like many of the storms previous have.

Sorry for the short update, but a long evening of work due to this storm and it is time to call it a night. A brief recap of the storm may be posted this weekend, otherwise an additional update on Saturday will likely be posted to let you know about the upcoming Super Bowl storm for parts of the Plains!!

Upcoming Winter Storms!!

2010-02-03T19:31:00.000-06:00

A multitude of storm systems will impact the central and northern Plains states within the next week, providing ample snowfall to areas as far north of the Dakotas and as far south as northern Oklahoma and Arkansas. The first system will result from a trough in the southwest moving onto the Plains state tomorrow, and will be reinforced by a shortwave during the day on Friday. This is likely going to lead to a widespread swath of 2-5" of snow across much of the central Plains including Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and even points further north. This system will be able to cause widespread snowfall due to its' extensive moisture plume that is available just ahead of the system. You can already see this ample moisture with the warm-air advection precipitation sheild that is moving northward over much of the southern Plains. This will continue to move northward, perhaps causing a mix of rain/snow for some areas of the central Plains tomorrow morning. Otherwise we'll see a change to all snow for most areas by tomorrow afternoon, and accumulating snow continuing through the day on Thursday and into Friday for some of the eastern portions of the Central Plains. For more specific details regarding snowfall totals be sure to check with the latest NWS information. The next update will likely come as this system is ongoing, thus will provide just a brief update on the ongoing storm and expected accumulations.

The second storm system has become much more organized with the latest model runs, indicating the potential for another significant winter storm over areas of the central and southern Plains. The heaviest band of snow does once again appear to be centered over the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. With snowfall accumulations rivaling that of the prevoius system which brought widespread 5-8" with isolated higher amounts. The timing of this system would bring the snowfall through these areas beginning late Sunday and continuing through the day on Monday. Other areas of northern Kansas/Missouri and even adjacent areas just north into NE/IA will also see snowfall with this system, however amounts should remain below 6" given current model indications. More details regarding this second system will be available in later updates...

Two Upcoming Storm Systems...

2010-02-02T22:54:00.002-06:00

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, but a low pressure system coming off of the Gulf of Mexico will bring precipitation chances to much of the central Plains by Thursday and Friday. The low pressure system will come onshore and remain along the Gulf Coast through the end of the week, however, an elongated trowel region will bring precipitation well northwest of the lows' center along the Gulf Coast. Precipitation should begin across areas of central and southern Kansas by Thursday afternoon, likely in the form of rain. By Thursday evening the precipitation should continue to move northeast and enter areas of eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight, with some areas seeing rain and others potentially a rain/snow mix through Friday morning. As the precipitation continues to move northeast, at least some cold air will likely push southward into KS/MO to aid in a change-over to snow as the main precip type. Dependent upon the precipitation intensity, this change-over may be able to occur sooner on Friday morning if intensities are at least moderate. Total snowfall amounts are hard to pinpoint at this time, not only with many questions regarding the extent of the trowal region, but also to when will we have the change-over to snow. Regardless, precipitation will be able to filter through much of Missouri through the day on Friday and leaving the state under sprinkles/flurries by Saturday afternoon. Areas further north, including Nebraska and Iowa, may also be able to see some precipitation from this system. The best chances will be over the southern regions of these states, where at least a few inches of snow are likely to fall by end of the week.

Total snow accumulations further south over areas of Kansas and Missouri are still in question, but would not be surprised to see some areas with 3-6 inches by the end of the week if some model indications are correct. Details regarding this system and its' snowfall potential will be assessed in a later update...

Beyond this system for Thursday/Friday, we are looking at a cold front to work its' way through the central Plains on Sunday/Monday. This will also bring snow potential for the entire central Plains region and behind its' passing will also be more cold air to deal with. Some flurries may remain possible on Saturday behind the first system, and increasing in intensity through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. This system may not last long, but its' intensity with the push of cold air will quickly rid the atmosphere of moisture and likely allow for a 'quick' 1-3 inches across the area with locally higher amounts. More details on this system will be forthcoming over the weekend as our first system passes by...

Febuary 1 Snowfall

2010-01-31T15:41:00.000-06:00

A quick system will move over the Plains states during the overnight tonight and through tomorrow, leaving a little more snow over parts of the Northern and Central Plains. This upper level disturbance will move over the Plains, and while moisture isn't abundant it will be able to squeeze out a few inches over parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and further east into the Great Lakes. Other areas across Nebraska and Missouri may also be able to squeeze out an inch or so of snowfall tomorrow. Snowfall should be across the eastern Dakotas during the morning hours tomorrow, over MN/IA/NE/MO through the late morning and afternoon hours, and then lingering over parts of MN/IA/MO and points east during the overnight and into Tuesday for the Great Lakes region.

Snow totals will range from 2-4 inches across southern North Dakota, northern/eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and then over the IL/WI borders. Up to an inch of snowfall may be seen across adjacent areas of the Dakotas/Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/Missouri and then also extreme northern Kansas, and points east into the Great Lakes regions. For specifics on your areas, check out your local NWS office for the latest snowfall forecasts...

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Recap

2010-01-31T12:23:00.000-06:00

Areas of significant icing and sleeting occurred through areas of central Oklahoma, into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley with this winter storm. Heavy snows fell from the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and points further east... Many of the National Weather Service offices have issued a summary of their reports received and links to them are below:

Amarillo, TX - Winter Storm Review & Snow/Ice Totals

Norman, OK - Snowfall Map & Ice Accum. Map

Tulsa, OK - Snowfall Totals Map

Wichita, KS - Snow Totals & Review

Dodge City, KS - Heavy Snow Totals

Springfield, MO - Snow Totals & Review

St. Louis, MO - Snowfall Totals

Little Rock, AR - Snow/Ice Totals & Review

Paducah, KY - Snowfall Totals

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #4

2010-01-29T08:18:00.000-06:00

As posted in a quick twitter update last night, this system had some problems with dry air, which was expected if you read back to previous posts or read any NWS discussion. A band of snowfall did setup along central Kansas, allowing for 2-4" across an area roughly along Highway 54 in Kansas. It took several hours for this band of snowfall to saturate the dry levels just above the surface yesterday afternoon, and as it continued to push northeastward early last night it continued to struggle with even drier air over northeast Kansas and Missouri. While this was able to finally saturate, only very light snow was reported with this, and thus little accumulations actually occurred.

This morning snowfall continues to be reported over southwest Missouri and southern Kansas, and this snow should continue through the morning hours in Kansas and over southern Missouri through this evening. Accumulations have been hampered by the dry air, and the heaviest band of snow over southern Missouri should range from 3-6". The two large metro areas of Missouri (Kansas City & St. Louis) should only see occasional light snow through the evening hours, leading to anywhere from a dusting to perhaps just over an inch of snow.

As expected, the hardest hit areas with this system was over Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas where the dry air was not present at 850hPa and the precipitation was easily able to saturate and reach the ground in very little time. Large amounts of snow, ice, and sleet were reported over these areas and please refer to their NWS webpage for the latest summaries on conditions there. A full recap of snowfall reports will be posted later this evening/tonight to recap the winter storm.

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #3

2010-01-28T14:33:00.001-06:00

Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain already falling across the Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon; with a mix of some severe weather as well with damaging winds gusts possible with a bow echo moving just south of the stationary boundary in northern Texas. Expect the precipitation to continue to move northeast and into southern Kansas and Missouri by this evening, and into central Kansas and Missouri by the overnight hours tonight. The precipitation should come to an end over Kansas by Friday evening, and over Missouri by Saturday morning. Areas south of I70 will see snowfall accumulations, however, areas just along I70 and just south will likely see 3" or less. Once again this is a very tight gradient of snowfall and will increase rapidly with southward extent. The heaviest snowfall amounts will likely occur along and south of Highway 54, where 6-10" seems likely...

Will be busy watching the storm progress this afternoon, with an update possible later tonight...

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #2

2010-01-27T18:11:00.003-06:00

Models continue to paint a winter storm over portions of the Southern/Central Plains, however the track and specifics on precipitation totals are still in question. Both this mornings (12z) model runs and this afternoons (18z) continued to slow the systems progress and hence pull the system further north across parts of Kansas and Missouri. At the same time, a strong arctic high will progress southward and situate itself over the Northern Plains for the same time frame as the upcoming winter storm. This will lead to a very tight northern gradient of snowfall amounts, with a 50 mile north/south range of no snow to upwards of 6 inches likely. The question that continues for most forecasters is where this line will be located at, will it be along/near I70 over Kansas and Missouri like the latest models anticipate, or will it be further south along Highway 54 as initial forecasts indicated? With this northward progression of the snowfall totals this leads to a further north progression of the sleet and freezing rain totals as well. Indicating that parts of extreme southern Missouri may see some initial precipitation fall as sleet rather than snow. Thus, a lot of questions remain in play for this system, especially with the system remaining out of reach by the upper air analysis for the forecast models.

We'll once again be waiting to see tomorrow mornings' model runs as they should finally begin to have data from at least portions of the system moving out of the Baja. For now the previous forecasts are going to have a tendency to be pushed further north, leading the heaviest axis of snow to occur from the Texas Panhandle east/northeast into northern Oklahoma and into southern Missouri. The heaviest band of sleet/ice is expected to occur from central Oklahoma into northern Arkansas, which is especially a change for portion of northern Arkansas that previously were looking at upwards of 8" of snow and are now viewing 2-4" and ice amounts of greater than a 1/4". Of greater concern is the northward extent of the snow, which as mentioned previously will come on a very sharp gradient. What makes this situation even more difficult, or easy, depending on what you want to believe is the large amounts of dry air that are being brought down with the arctic high pressure over the Northern Plains. RH values near 850hPa are going to be below 20% over much of Missouri and adjacent areas on Thursday evening! Now given the dynamics and good warm/moist air advection across southern Missouri and adjacent areas this shouldn't be much of a problem, although limiting the first couple hours of precipitation to saturate this dry layer. The problem arises further north where the winds are likely to stay northeast or easterly at best at 850hPa leading to only dry/neutral advection at best. Areas that cannot get winds turned to the southeast are not likely to overcome this dry air at 850hPa and thus will are not likely to see any accumulating precipitation. I've included this nice image below to give you an example using the BUFKIT data at KMCI (Kansas City Intl), and a cross-section from northeast Nebraska into north-central Arkansas (thus including Omaha, Kansas City and Springfield). You can see on the BUFKIT overview (on the left) that through Thursday evening we are never able to completely saturate and theoretically allow precipitation to fall. The cross-section to the right shows a good reason why, valid at Thursday 6PM you can see the relative humidity given by the black contours, and frontogenesis in the colored image. The frontogenesis will aid in saturating the layer below, however if you were to watch the loop of the image you would see that it is only strong enough to overcome the area to the south of Kansas City. Leaving KC along the edge of near-saturation and still having RH values of less than 30% at/near 850hPa.

In the end, areas to the south of I70 appear to have the chance at accumulating snow, with areas along I70 at least having the chance of seeing snow occurring. Snowfall amounts near/along I70 will likely be less than an inch, with a rapid increase to the south where nearly 6" of accumulation may be seen 25 miles north of the Highway 54 axis of KS/MO. Exact values and locations still subject to change of course... I may get an update in tomorrow morning, otherwise expect a quick update sometime tomorrow evening before this system really gets going over the Plains.

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #1

2010-01-27T11:07:00.000-06:00

A major winter storm continues to be forecasted for areas of the Southern and Central Plains...

Just a quick update this morning, with a more expansive update likely this evening as the storm begins to take shape across the Southern High Plains. Significant icing continues to be likely across areas of north-central Texas into central Oklahoma, and perhaps into parts of northern Arkansas as well. Significant snowfall is also still on track over the Texas panhandle, northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and into northern Arkansas/southern Missouri. Snowfall amounts of at least 8" seems likely, with widespread areas of TX/OK also seeing amounts greater than a foot and isolated areas perhaps seeing 18"! Other areas of Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas may see amounts greater than 8" and isolated amounts nearing a foot. Forecast models are beginning to have more data on this storm system, and thus we may see some changes in forecast intensity/track by this afternoon and especially this evening. Some minor trends that I noticed this morning included a slightly further north track, and the best intensity occurring further west over TX/OK rather than the corners of TX/OK/MO/AR. If this trend continues, than more areas of KS/MO may see this heavier snow... While it still remains further south than the Kansas City metro and the St. Louis metro, it is much closer than previous forecasts indicated. Any push further north may put these areas at least under a chance of accumulating snow for late Thursday and Friday. This afternoon/evening update will address any trends that the models take today...

Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30

2010-01-26T18:35:00.001-06:00

A major winter storm is still expected to impact portions of the Southern and Central Plains states in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Forecast models continue to be in fair agreement that a low pressure system will form in the High Plains regions of NM/TX and continue east/northeastward over Texas and into Arkansas/Louisiana and points eastward before making its' way northward over the Appalachian Mountains. This low pressure system will have ample gulf moisture to work with, that is currently moving northward over southern Texas. This along with good warm air advection is setting the stage for a significant winter storm not only in terms of snowfall amounts, but the potential for significant freezing rain and sleet over portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Further north, strong cold air advection with the presence of an arctic high over the Northern Plains will push the precipitation type to all snow over parts of southern Kansas, southern Missouri, northern Oklahoma, and extreme northern Arkansas. Current snowfall forecasts of 6-12" are likely in these regions with the potential for some isolated higher amounts given the dynamics and strong warm/cold air advections taking place.

Ahead of this system, a series of weak shortwaves will give the portions of NE/IA/KS/MO a shot at some brief snow flurries or showers tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Areas of north-central and eastern Missouri are in the best position to see these light snow showers, however, accumulations should still remain at a dusting at best.

Regarding the positioning of our Thursday/Friday winter storm, areas south of a Liberal, KS to Wichita, KS to St. Louis, MO line will see snowfall. With the heaviest axis of snowfall likely falling 50 miles north/south of a Woodward, OK to Winona, MO line. Along this heaviest snow axis, 6-12" with isolated higher amounts appear possible. Also of concern will be the potential for significant sleet and freezing rain, with this axis coming 50 miles north/south of a Altus, OK to Jonesboro, AR line. These are initial positions of heaviest snow/ice axis', as this system is still coming onshore. Morning model runs should have a much better idea on this system, as sporadic changes could still ensue with the forecast models. An additional update tomorrow morning will address if any sporadic changes have been made...

Iowa Blizzard - Jan. 25

2010-01-25T15:30:00.001-06:00

Conditions across the state of Iowa have deteriorated rapidly throughout the day, causing many roadways across central and western Iowa to be closed due to blowing snow. Roadways that are not 'officially' closed are still advised no travel as plows have been pulled off of the roadways and rescue in the case of an incident will be near impossible. As of 2PM the Iowa DOT and Iowa State Patrol were in the process of closing I-35 from Clear Lake to Ames due to a number of incidents along that stretch of interstate and to avoid any additional wrecks. Blizzard Warnings will continue through 9 PM or Midnight for many of the counties in western and central Iowa due to the continued blowing snow. Less than an inch of new snow is expected through the remainder of the afternoon, but the 2-5 inches of accumulation that has fell since last night is creating blizzard conditions across these areas. Winds from the northwest will continue at 25-45 mph with some higher gusts, creating near zero visibility into the nighttime hours. Winds should begin to subside during the overnight and continue to do so through the day tomorrow. Nonetheless, expect hazardous driving conditions to continue into the afternoon hours tomorrow as road crews will need several hours to clear roadways that have drifted shut. Reports from some counties indicate drifts upwards of three feet high are occurring on state and county roads.

Once again, there are several reports of stranded/disabled vehicles across the state, many of which may not have rescue for several more hours. If you do not have to travel, please do not do so!

Blizzard Warning!

2010-01-25T10:20:00.000-06:00

Several NWS offices have issued a Blizzard Warning for portions of the northern Plains including western Minnesota, and much of western Iowa. These blizzard warnings continue until this evening as snowfall of light to moderate intensity should continue through much of the afternoon. Although accumulations of only 1-2 inches at most is expected, strong winds of 30-40 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph will likely create hazardous conditions. While snow is falling, these winds will create white out conditions on most roadways, and in some areas may also cause drifting of the blowing snow. As the snow moves out of the area this evening conditions should improve, although a ground blizzard situation could ensue with the new snow left on the ground. Expect storm total accumulations of 2-5 inches across central Iowa, with 1-3 inches likely across extreme western Iowa. Lesser amounts are possible across eastern Iowa, and northern Missouri through this evening, although the strong winds may create some hazardous driving conditions.

The Iowa DOT is beginning to advise no travel for several major highways, and have begun to pull plows off of the roads in some areas due to the zero visibility and drifting of snow. Once again... Winter just does not want to end across these regions!

Winter is still going...

2010-01-25T09:19:00.000-06:00

I was kind of amazed this morning at all of the comments regarding how winter just does not seem to want to end across the Plains, especially the northern Plains. Even comments from students across Iowa indicate that they would rather just go to school than continue with their snow days, this comes as they realize they will have so many days to make up that their summer will likely be cut in half. This is true today as light to moderate snow continues to fall across the northern Plains, areas of the Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin continue to see snow fall, and northeast Nebraska into western and central Iowa are also seeing an additional 1-2" of snow today. While these amounts are not challenging to most people, northwest winds continue at 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, creating blowing snow and hazardous wind chills and driving conditions. This snow will thankfully come to an end later this afternoon and evening for most areas, with perhaps a few lingering flurries for the overnight for these areas and places a little south (northern MO). We'll get a dry day on Tuesday, and for early Wednesday for most areas...

The next storm system will come into play late Wednesday through early Friday for areas of the central Plains. Current forecasts indicate that this system will mainly impact areas of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri and areas of the Tennessee & Ohio Valley's. Although areas farther north may still see precipitation, Kansas City may see a wintery mix on Wednesday and the same goes for areas of central Missouri (Columbia & Jefferson City). A warm front will become situated over southern/central Missouri as a low develops over the high plains regions of Texas/Oklahoma. This warm front will allow precipitation to begin across southern Missouri and adjacent areas by the evening hours on Wednesday. The initial precipitation type will be the questionable one, as we could see either rain or freezing rain; and perhaps a mix of sleet before the precipitation should change over to snow by Thursday afternoon. The changeover to snow will occur as the low slides to the south across Arkansas, allowing additional cold air to filter in. Timing and exact locations are still difficult at the moment, but confidence is becoming fairly high that areas of southern Missouri will see a wintery mix of precipitation from Wednesday evening into early Friday. Additional updates regarding the end of today's light snow and the midweek storm system tonight.

More Light Snow

2010-01-24T19:45:00.002-06:00

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for portions of extreme eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and extreme southeast South Dakota until Midnight tonight. This was issued for both snow and blowing snow that is occurring across these areas, with a band of light to occasionally moderate snow is continuing to fall over these areas. Total accumulations of a half-inch to an inch is expected, although some higher amounts may fall if this band continues over the same area for a few hours. Regardless, winds of 20-30 mph will create blowing snow conditions across many of the roadways and create slick and hazardous travel conditions (especially over secondary roads). Snowfall will continue through the night across much of the northern Plains where various winter advisories and warnings have been issued. Additional flurries and occasional light snow showers are possible further south into areas of northern KS/MO, but accumulations are not likely.

The northwest winds will continue to push colder air into the Plains states, leaving temperatures below normal for the area through Wednesday ahead of our next storm system. Details on our work week temperatures and more information on our potential for a mid-week storm for areas of the central Plains.

Winter Storm: Jan. 23/24 Update #2

2010-01-23T10:15:00.000-06:00

This mornings' temperatures remain above freezing for much of the northern Plains, leading to continued rainfall for much of South Dakota, southern Minnesota and points southward. Despite the rain and temperatures just above freezing, some areas of southern Minnesota, South Dakota and extreme northern Iowa may still see slick areas due to surfaces' still below freezing. Major roadways remain wet, however, secondary roads and any metal surfaces are likely to be slick this morning. Further north along and behind the freezing line we have a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain which is likely creating hazardous conditions. The rough surface map and drawing below indicates those areas:

With this system occluding now over the plains, the best moisture and continued precipitation will be over the southern Plains states today. Light precipitation should come to an end for most areas late this evening, with only some lingering snow showers left for Sunday/Monday as the cold air filters into the area. Accumulations are not expected to be significant over any areas of NE/IA/KS/MO, however cold air will once again return to the Plains. Looking ahead to next week after this system, we look to remain below average for temperatures for much of the week. There does not appear to be any large precipitation chances through mid-week...

Winter Storm: Jan. 23/24 Update #1

2010-01-23T00:38:00.000-06:00

Precipitation continues to move northeast tonight ahead of a deepening low pressure system currently located along the KS/NE borders, with another occluded low now meandering over western South Dakota.

The strength of the secondary low along the KS/NE borders has brought increasing winds ahead of it across KS/MO/NE/IA and points even further north. These increased winds have pushed temperatures above the freezing mark as far north as North Dakota and central Minnesota, which has decreased the previous estimates of freezing rain across the northern plains. With these temperatures rising through the night, only minor accumulations of freezing rain are expected across extreme northern NE/IA and points northward. As the low moves eastward, northwest winds will move in behind the system and change over the precipitation to light snow across parts of IA/NE northward, but accumulations are not expected to be significant.

This is much needed news for parts of Iowa where today three counties were state declared disaster areas to increase the aid provided for these regions. I traveled through parts of Crawford and Ida counties which saw upwards of a half-inch of ice and more rime ice on top of power lines and all other objects. It was an impressive site, with several power lines snapped and other hanging significantly towards the ground impending more power outages. Back through the area late this evening I saw several dozen electric cooperative vehicles attempting to fix as many lines as possible despite the fogging and windy conditions. With the increased wind tonight out of the east, there was undoubtedly even more problems with ice falling and bouncing power lines. This holds true as over 15,000 homes/businesses in Iowa are still without power tonight, an increase from Thursday. You can check out the latest updates on the Iowa Electric Cooperatives Power Outage Map.

As mentioned, most areas of NE/IA and points southward will see light to moderate rain during the overnight hours, with a few rumbles of thunder likely mixed in as well. An update tomorrow morning will address the transitioning from liquid precipitation to some frozen type across a majority of the northern Plains.

Winter Storm: Jan. 23/24

2010-01-21T17:06:00.000-06:00

The next storm system for the northern and central Plains is working its' way onshore today, and will make its' way past the Rockies and onto the Plains by late Friday. This system will likely only be a winter weather producer for areas of Iowa/Nebraska and points north on Saturday, with perhaps areas of northern Kansas/Missouri seeing some wintery precipitation on Sunday as the system exits the Plains late Sunday and early Monday. While areas of the Dakotas and Minnesota will be looking at the potential for both accumulating ice and snow, the main concern over parts of Nebraska/Iowa and nearby adjacent areas will be the rain/freezing rain potential once again. Precipitation on Saturday will be mixed with freezing rain, rain, and sleet at times before changing over to snow later Saturday night. Ice accumulations ranging from a quarter to a half-inch are possible across portions of Iowa, with lesser amounts likely over other areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Once again there may be localized areas that receive higher accumulations of ice and sleet, with currently forecasts indicating that western Iowa may once again see the heaviest band of accumulating ice/sleet. The heaviest snowfalls will likely come across parts of the central Dakotas where upwards of 6 inches is possible on top of a tenth of an inch of ice.

Regarding the timing of this system, current indications will be for the Dakotas and Nebraska to see precipitation begin as early as Friday evening and continue through Saturday afternoon, with only lingering snow showers for Saturday night and Sunday. Western Iowa will see a start early Saturday and continue until early Sunday, with only lingering snow left for Sunday evening into early Monday; central and eastern Iowa will see precipitation begin Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday afternoon before lingering snowfall remains for Sunday evening into Monday. Farther south over Kansas and Missouri, the main concerns for any winter precipitation will be for later Saturday and Sunday as the cold air pushes southeast. Areas of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri may be able to see some light snow, with perhaps accumulations of up to an inch possible in isolated locations mainly in far northern Missouri. Otherwise these areas of KS/MO can expect rainfall and perhaps a thunderstorm or two beginning early Saturday and continuing through the day.

An update on this winter storm is likely on early Saturday as the system begins to impact the Plains.

Winter Storm: Jan. 20 Update & Recap

2010-01-20T17:40:00.001-06:00

Some light freezing rain and drizzle remains across portions of northern and eastern Iowa this afternoon, however a majority of the precipitation has fallen across these areas. The hardest hit areas with freezing rain occurred in portions of western Iowa, mainly over areas surrounding Denison where as much as one inch of ice accumulation occurred. Other areas in the state received near a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, which was significant enough to cause some travel problems along with several brief power outages. The latest electric cooperative data shows that as many as 10,000 Iowans are currently without power due to the ice accumulation on lines, with a majority of them in western Iowa. In addition to the ice accurral, some hoar frost had already accumulated on power lines to make matters worse as the freezing rain began last night.

To view the summary of freezing rain accumulations across Iowa, check out the Des Moines NWS image below:

We now look forward to a small break in the weather before our next system enters the plains states for the weekend. Updates on this weekends storm later on tomorrow...

Winter Storm: Jan. 20/21

2010-01-19T17:10:00.001-06:00

As mentioned in this mornings' post, the previous Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Winter Weather Advisories, Freezing Rain Advisories, or Ice Storm Warnings for portions of KS/NE/IA and other adjacent states. A low pressure system will move eastward into central Missouri, leaving areas to the north of the low in a position to receive freezing rain through much of the overnight and into Wednesday morning. Other areas along and south of the lows' path will also see precipitation, although it should remain above freezing and therefore only fall as rain. In fact, some areas may be able to hear a few rumbles of thunder as some instability aloft will create conditions for some isolated thunderstorms across extreme eastern Kansas and through central and southern Missouri.

Regarding the areas of freezing rain, expect the heaviest amounts to occur across portions of Iowa, mainly where the Ice Storm Warning has been issued. Other areas adjacent to this warning may see up to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, while areas within the warning are likely to see greater than a quarter of an inch with isolated areas seeing as much as one-half of an inch of ice accumulation. Portions of extreme northern Iowa, northern Missouri, central Nebraska, and north-central Kansas may also see ice accumulations during the overnight hours with total accumulations nearing a tenth of an inch in locations. Furthermore, some portions of northern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, and northern Iowa as well as other adjacent areas may see snowfall or other mixed precipitation types as they are expected to remain slightly cooler aloft than other areas; this may lead to an inch or so of snow accumulation as well.

Additional updates may be posted late tonight or more likely earlier tomorrow as the ice storm is well underway. The Des Moines NWS is labeling this as a life threatening ice storm situation, and although the majority of ice may fall during the overnight hours tonight into the morning hours on Wednesday, expect additional freezing drizzle to continue through the night on Wednesday.

Upcoming 'Spring' Storm

2010-01-19T08:38:00.000-06:00

The last few days have been fairly depressing across the area due to the dense fog that has stuck around the area nearly 24/7. The reduced visibilities of less than a 1/4 mile have created some travel problems, including a very large accident on I-35 in the Kansas City area. Our fog will finally be coming to an end today, as a storm system will finally increase our wind speeds and begin mixing down some dryer air. Although our fog will come to an end sometime near the Noon hour today, we'll still be stuck under cloudy skies and likely see some form of drizzle and light rain through the afternoon. Additional showers and even a thunderstorm or two will be possible this evening and overnight for northern/central Kansas and much of Missouri. Further north where surface temperatures are going to struggle near freezing we have Winter Storm Watches that have been issued due to the likelihood of freezing rain/drizzle. Ice accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch are possible throughout much of Iowa and eastern Nebraska, with greater than a quarter-inch of ice possible across central portions of east-central Nebraska and central Iowa. These watches will likely be upgraded to advisories or warnings for freezing rain later this morning. Total rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.40" are likely across the region from the KC Metro through much of northern Missouri, eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, and much of Iowa.

Additional showers are possible for early Wednesday as a warm front finally lifts northward through KS/MO, bringing an increase in temperatures as well as beginning to clear our skies out. A low pressure system will move out of the Arklatex region to the northeast, perhaps leaving portions of southern Missouri under additional showers and even a thunderstorm. Our next storm system will move off of the Rockies late Friday and onto the northern Plains, dragging a cold front with it that will likely push through on Saturday bringing additional rain showers to eastern Kansas and much of Missouri for Saturday and Saturday night. Areas of Nebraska and Iowa may see rain showers and freezing rain once again as surface temperatures still struggle with the snow pack that remains in areas. More details on this weekend's system in later updates...

We are trying to get into more of a spring-type systems with a mixture of precipitation types, but we look to fall back into freezing weather after our weekend system for at least a few days.

Melting Snow... Next Week Storm Systems...

2010-01-12T08:25:00.001-06:00

Temperatures are on the rise across much of the Plains states, and look to continue to do so for the remainder of this week and even well into next week. A ridge at 500hPa builds into the central plains and will be responsible for the warm-up today and tomorrow, just before a weak Canadian system brings some frozen precipitation chances to the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and other parts of the central Plains. Along with this Canadian system, we'll see another low pressure system enter the southern Plains and quickly become cutoff near the Gulf Coast. This system may bring some heavy rains and precipitation to the southern Plains and Gulf Coast regions for late this week, but should not hinder our warm-up for the northern and central Plains.

Temperature values today will range from the 20s across MN/IA/WI to the upper 50s across western SD/NE/KS. Wednesdays highs increase to the upper 20s along portions of snow covered areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa; to the 60s across western Kansas. Highs from the 20s to 50s from north to south across the Dakotas/Minnesota to KS/MO on Thursday. Similar temperatures will persist for the remainder of the week and into next week ahead of a building trough at 500hPa.

This trough at 500hPa will allow at least two storm systems to round the base of the trough and eject onto the plains states. Currently models forecast the first of these systems to occur mid-week, and with significant moisture and warm air to work with could lead to a substantial rain event across the central plains and further north into places such as IA/NE and even southern MN. This could lead to some flooding concerns for areas that still have significant snow pack next week, as ample rainfall would combine with quick snow-melt to create significant run-off. As this system continues eastward could still need to some wintery precipitation across the northern Plains, with much of the precipitation across the Dakotas falling as snow. The second system looks to occur in the January 23-25 time frame and may be another significant winter storm for the northern and central plains. Significant snowfall and increasing winds would be the highlights of this system, which may mean blizzard or near-blizzard conditions for some areas.

These systems are definitely in the long range forecasts, so be sure to enjoy the warming weather for the next week or so... More details on these systems will be posted as models gain consistency and confidence in a solution increases.

Warming Up!

2010-01-10T10:17:00.000-06:00

Snowfall ranged from a few inches to places as far south as the Ozarks in Missouri and into southeast Kansas, to upwards of 8 inches in portions of Iowa to add to their already record snow depth and snowfall totals. Now areas like Kansas City are creeping in on their records for snowfall with 23.3 inches thus far for the season compared to only 7.5 inches that is expected thus far. Along with this snowfall that fell across the plains, arctic air dove into the plains states and didn't stop there. Areas as far south as Georgia and Alabama saw accumulations of winter precipitation this past week, with record temperatures as far south as Florida where they reached into the 20s!

Our arctic high will begin to push east today, and a small ridge will actually work onto the plains states for this week. This means warming temperatures for much of the plains, although they will still struggle due to the large amounts of snow that are on the ground. Expect those areas that are on the southern periphery of the snowfall to quickly see their snow melt off early this week and aid in the melting of snow for places farther north. The warmest day of the week will likely come on Wednesday when the center of the ridge is centered on the plains states. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s in western Kansas to near freezing across the state of Iowa. The Kansas City area can expect to see a high near 40 on Wednesday, a full look at temperatures across the KC Metro for the week is below:

Today: Highs in the mid 20s with lows tonight only dropping to near 20.
Monday: Highs near freezing with overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
Tuesday: Mid 30s for highs and an overnight low in the lower 20s.
Wednesday: High near 40 for the warmest day of the week, with a low into the mid 20s.
Thur - Sat.: Highs in the upper 30s and perhaps slightly warmer; overnight lows from the lower 20s into the upper teens.

Winter Storm: Jan. 6-7 Update #1

2010-01-07T07:57:00.000-06:00

The snowfall has moved into the midwestern states and the Great Lakes region this morning, with only some isolated flurries left across portions of the central and northern Plains. Areas that aren't seeing snow this morning are still having troubles will travel due to the strong northwest winds that are currently blowing 20-30 mph with gusts upwards of 40 mph. The arctic air is also a problem for many places, as temperatures dive into the single digits above and below zero combine with the current winds to lead to dangerous wind chill values across the entire northern/central Plains.

Snowfall totals are hard to measure due to the winds and blowing snow, however, generally it appears that a swath of 5-8" occurred across northwest and central Iowa. In the Kansas City area we have generally 4-5" across the metro with travel conditions not ideal despite the efforts of the DOT and county road crews. National Weather Service offices have yet to post a final snowfall totals map, however this should be issued later today and will be posted here either this evening or tomorrow morning.

Be prepared for record cold temperatures once again for tonight, Friday and Friday night across the central Plains. We'll look towards a warm-up for the end of this weekend and especially through early next week as sunny skies and warmer winds attempt to help us out.

Winter Storm: Jan. 6-7

2010-01-06T08:08:00.000-06:00

Another round of winter weather is driving through the northern plains states of IA/NE and into KS/MO this afternoon before moving eastward into the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley regions for the 7th and 8th. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for much of the plains, with the heaviest amounts currently falling across the eastern Dakotas and extreme western Minnesota and into extreme eastern Nebraska and across western/central Iowa this morning. These heavier amounts may also make it into northeastern Missouri and adjacent regions this afternoon. This heaviest band will likely accumulate 6-8" of snowfall over a fairly short period of time today, with a good swath of 4+ inches across nearly the entire state of Missouri.

Since my last updates I have finished my move down to the Kansas City area, and have started work this week as well. The Kansas City area can expect 4-6" of snow with this system, with the heavier amounts on the eastern side of the metro. While some flurries or light snow activity may be seen this morning, expect the heaviest snow to come on this afternoon and at times become heavy. Luckily the winds will stay light for a majority of the snowfall, but as this evening progresses and we see the last of the snow bands come through the region we'll see the winds turn to the northwest and become quite gusty. This will create heavy blowing and drifting snow across the area, and may lead to near-blizzard conditions for tonight and through much of the day Thursday.

Look for an additional update tonight as the snow begins to taper across the KC metro and moves into the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley.

Just A Little More...

2009-12-26T23:03:00.000-06:00

Our cut-off low pressure system continues to rotate above the northern plains and western great lakes regions, and is making sure it squeezes out as much moisture as possible before it leaves. Scattered snow showers are rotating across portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa at this hour, providing anywhere from a dusting to upwards of 2-3 inches on the ground in heavier bands. This snow will just be a little top-off by this system before finally leaving the plains...

We'll be left in a cool air mass, with temperatures in the teens and 20s across the northern plains on Sunday. The Dakotas and northwest Minnesota will see a cool down into the lower 10s for Monday and Tuesday while the remainder of the northern plains will keep high in the teens and 20s. Lows will have a greater variance, from the single digits below zero the the lower teens from ND to southern Iowa on Sunday night. Below zero temperatures will be widespread to all but southern Iowa on Monday night and from the teens to near zero from southern Iowa to the Canadian border on Tuesday night ahead of our next clipper storm system.

Our next storm system will not likely bring much in the way of precipitation, but will bring in some reinforced cold air. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will be below normal with below zero temperatures across much of the northern plains. More details on this mid-week clipper in the next update...

Winter Storm: Dec. 23-25 Overview

2009-12-26T16:18:00.002-06:00

The Christmas Snowstorm/Blizzard of 2009 has came to an end across most of the plains, with some lingering snow left over the Great Lakes region and the far eastern plains states. Widespread blizzard conditions creating major travel delays and cancellations with airport and road closures. These conditions along with a mix of sleet, ice, and snow created power outages across many areas and even more travel concerns. Other areas of the plains were warm enough to escape the winter storm, but saw flooding rains as frozen ground created troublesome run-off.

The Des Moines NWS has issued their event snowfall map for the state of Iowa, which shows a good gradient of snowfall across the state. Keep in mind that there is several reports of greater than 12" in northwest Iowa where isolated amounts of 18-21" have been reported. I've included links to several NWS website stories that have event totals in lists, or in both lists and graphical format below. I may do another post if I find more NWS sites that do an event summary on the event similar to ones that a few others have done.

Des Moines NWS Map

Omaha NWS Map & List

Sioux Falls NWS List

Kansas City NWS Summary & Maps

Aberdeen NWS List

LaCrosse NWS Summary & List

Winter Storm: Dec. 23-25 Update #6

2009-12-25T08:10:00.002-06:00

The Christmas Blizzard and Winter Storm of 2009 has taken its' toll thus far with several roads and interstates becoming closed last evening and continued to be closed this morning. Much of western Iowa, eastern Dakotas/Nebraska, and southern Minnesota and feeling the brunt of the snow currently. Expect the snow and winds to continue through the day, making travel near-impossible if not completely impossible. Refer to the previous post for an updating map on current snowfall totals. Below is the latest Sioux Falls NWS weather story displaying their current warnings they have issued and the latest expected snowfall forecasts.

Sorry for the short update, but after all it is Christmas morning! Enjoy it inside and don't risk the travel today as conditions are very unforgiving.

Winter Storm: Dec. 23-25 Update #5

2009-12-24T22:50:00.002-06:00

The Christmas Blizzard of 2009 is well underway with the expansion of blizzard warnings to include parts of Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and other areas. Interstates and other major highways are now being closed by the DOT's and other areas are advising no travel. With winds on the increase throughout the night expect conditions to continue to worsen and remain hazardous through Christmas day. The combination of ice, snow, and strong winds may also be creating some power outages for the areas affected.

~~The map below will update automatically throughout the night and Christmas day with the latest snowfall totals, enjoy your Christmas day!~~

Map removed due to being outdated.

Winter Storm: Dec. 23-25 Update #4

2009-12-24T08:01:00.001-06:00

Our first round of snow across the northern plains has came to an end, and we are now looking towards a digging trough in the western plains and its' associated low pressure system that should strengthen and create blizzard or near-blizzard conditions across a large part of the northern plains. Both the northern and southern streams of the jets will have ample support for a low pressure system and result in rapid intensification of the 500mb low creating a large closed low across the northern high plains. This will aid in pulling the intensifying surface low from the Mississippi valley region back westward towards the northern plains. This will prolong the snowfall for much of the plains, and also results in an increased pressure gradient leading towards are high winds expected tonight through Friday.

For today we'll see some scattered snow showers and mixed precipitation across the state of Iowa and adjacent areas, with little accumulations for most areas. This may give roadway crews time to clear the roads somewhat and make travel a little less hazardous. However, conditions will deteriorate very quickly this evening as moderate to heavy snow begins to fall and winds continue to increase. Models continue to forecast the heaviest snowfall across western Iowa, with the potential for 8-12" or more during the overnight hours tonight with snow continue through Christmas day. Snowfall totals still look to range in the 16-18" with isolated higher amounts throughout western Iowa, Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas and nearby areas.

While afternoon and evening travel may not appear hazardous with the lack of precipitation falling, keep in mind that conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening as our next storm system begins to impact the area. Moderate to heavy snowfall will fall throughout the nighttime hours and continue through the day on Christmas. Here is some of the latest snowfall totals for the past 24 hours at Iowa cooperative observer stations (this should fill in with all of the reports as they are received today):

Winter Storm: Dec. 23-25 Update #3

2009-12-23T22:03:00.000-06:00

Some hefty snow falling across Iowa currently, with some very large flakes being reported in many areas. Thus far I currently measure 3.25" of snow, with snow currently falling at a 1"/hour rate. There is some fairly hefty snow falling across parts of the state currently, with 2"/hour or heavier snow rates likely in the heaviest band. Latest snowfall reports show widespread 2-4" across northern Iowa with some heavier amounts over north-central Iowa. Expect the snowfall to continue throughout the night, with total accumulations of 4-8" likely over northern Iowa with perhaps some isolated higher amounts. Forecasts are still on track for 18"+ for northwest and north-central Iowa; and 10-15" across the remainder of northern Iowa. Ice accumulations are also becoming a problem across the central portions of the state, with a tenth to over a quarter inch already reported. Hazardous travel conditions have been ongoing for some time, with reports of multiple cars in ditches in several counties across the state.

We may see some breaks in the snow come tomorrow, but expect travel to continue to be hazardous through Friday and much of the day Saturday. Snow totals look very impressive with this system, and with winds on the increase and the snow becoming lighter expect drifting to be a big concern as well. An update in the morning will give the latest snowfall measurement here, and hopefully some graphical representation of the snowfall across the state as well.